Research On Coordinated Development And Analysis Of Space-Time Competition Between Hsr And Civil Aviation

With the continuous expansion of China's high-speed railway construction scale,the continuous formation of transportation network,and the steady improvement of its competitiveness,the traditional high-speed passenger transport mode,that is,civil aviation,will inevitably cause huge impact and challenges.Therefore,in recent years,China's civil aviation industry has taken a series of measures to deal with the impact of high-speed rail.However,with the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of both sides,if high-speed rail and civil aviation still take price advantage as the main means,it will cause adverse situation for the long-term development of both sides.Therefore,the research on the competition and coordination between high-speed rail and civil aviation has certain practical significance for avoiding the vicious competition between them,improving the reasonable allocation of traffic resources,and the sustainable development and operation of both.Starting from competition and coordination,this paper first analyzes the technical and economic characteristics of high-speed rail and civil aviation,and based on the theory and calculation principle of non aggregation,analyzes and studies two kinds of influencing factors of high-speed rail and civil aviation competition,and then constructs the BL(binary logit)competition model of high-speed rail and civil aviation to analyze the passenger flow competition relationship between the two sides.Secondly,on the basis of the analysis of the competition relationship,combined with the coordination theory,the paper analyzes the coordination between high-speed rail passenger transport and civil aviation passenger transport,summarizes the goals and principles of the collaborative development of both sides,and analyzes the mechanism of the collaborative evolution of high-speed rail and civil aviation;Thirdly,on the basis of in-depth analysis of the characteristics of high-speed passenger transport system,the multi-objective collaborative model of high-speed rail and civil aviation is constructed with the minimum difference between the actual function utilization and the ideal function utilization of high-speed rail and civil aviation as the optimization objective.Finally,taking Beijing Shanghai passenger transport channel as an example,this paper analyzes the competitive relationship and coordinated development of Beijing Shanghai high-speed railway and Beijing Shanghai route within the channel.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Through the investigation,analysis and statistical research of travel intention,thecompetition model parameters are calibrated.The results show that among many factors,only arrival time,arrival cost,travel distance,travel cost,travel time and punctuality have significant influence on the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation.(2)The elastic analysis of six factors shows that: arrival time,arrival cost,travel distance and travel cost have a positive impact on the selection of civil aviation travel.When each factor increases by 1%,the selection probability of civil aviation will increase by 0.51%,0.27%,1.36% and 1.12% respectively;travel time and punctuality have a positive impact on the selection of high-speed rail travel.When each factor increases by 1%,the selection probability of civil aviation will increase by 0.51%,0.27%,1.36% and 1.12% respectively The probability of iron selection increased by 1.98% and 1.68% respectively.(3)According to the characteristics of passenger travel,the method attribute index is determined as the utility index according to the utility maximization theory,the entropy method is used to modify the index weight,the genetic algorithm is used to solve the multi-objective collaborative model,and the passenger flow sharing ratio of high-speed rail and civil aviation is calculated and analyzed.The results show that in the high-speed passenger transport system,when the objective function of the model obtains the optimal solution of 0.2305 At that time,the passenger flow sharing rate of high-speed rail and civil aviation is about 63% and 37%,which is a more reasonable passenger transport structure.