Study On Competition Between High-Speed Rail And Civil Aviation In Medium-Distance(500-800km)Corridor

In recent years,with the construction and operation of high-speed railways in our country,the concussion that high-speed rail passenger transport brings to civil aviation passenger transport along the routes has begun to show.Among them,air routes in short-distance travel within 500 Km which is predominated by high-speed rail passenger transport have to cancel the flight;air routes in medium-distance travel between 500 Km and 800 Km which is fiercely impacted by high-speed rail passenger transport still have several market share.This paper establishes a model of the travel choice of travelers in medium-distance between high-speed rail and civil aviation,and subdivides the travel passengers,which provides a reference for how to improve the attractiveness of civil aviation passenger transport in medium-distance traffic corridor.Taking Xi’an-Chengdu traffic corridor as an example,this paper investigates the traveling passengers through SP and RP survey,establishes the logistic regression model by SPSS,and examines the influence of nine factors on personal characteristics and transport mode characteristics.The result shows that the significant factors include: occupation,travel purpose,source of travel expense,expected air ticket discount and expected waiting time difference before and after the journey.Binary logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis are applied to analyze the survey data.The results of the regression analysis are combined to draw the conclusion: office salaries and business personnel,travel for public affairs and business,higher expected airfare discount,longer expected waiting time difference before and after the journey show higher probability of taking more plane than high-speed rail.SPSS Modeler is used to conduct two-step clustering of the survey data,and the traveling passengers are divided into 6 categories with different characteristics: tour traveling students,office salaries and business personnel traveling for tourism,other professionals traveling for public affairs and business or other purposes,other professionals traveling for tour traveling,grass-roots office salaries and business personnel traveling for public affairs and business,senior office salaries and business personnel traveling for public affairs and business.The present situation and expectation of travel characteristics of each group are tested by two-correlation sample nonparametric test.It is found that tour traveling students expect shorter travel time and waiting time difference,office salaries and business personnel traveling for tourism can accept higher travel cost difference before and after travel,clustering-3 travelers expect shorter travel time and waiting time difference and lower travel cost difference before and after travel,other professionals traveling for tour traveling expect lower air ticket discount,senior office salaries and business personnel expect lower air ticket discount.According to the difference between the expected travel characteristics and the actual travel characteristics of each clustering group,this paper puts forward some specific improvement measures to enhance the attractiveness of civil aviation,including:(1)Airlines provide a suitable number of lower discount tickets;(2)Airports provide more economical and efficient means of transportation to and from airports;(3)Airlines cooperate with units and enterprises.