Study On The Intelligentized Forecast Technology Of Vessel Sailing Risk In VTS

With the development of China's economy,the increasing of maritime trade,the increasing density of ship traffic,the increasing variety,quantity and scope of information exchange,the traditional management methods have been difficult to meet the rapid development of water transport needs.With the frequent occurrence of maritime accidents,people begin to pay attention to how to use scientific and effective means to deal with information,establish a ship navigation risk prediction mechanism,fundamentally guarantee the safety of navigation,reduce the occurrence of maritime traffic accidents and protect the marine environment.In view of the current situation that the existing VTS system mainly relies on the management personnel to judge the navigation risk of ships,this paper proposes a VTS structure with intelligent ship navigation risk prediction subsystem based on the analysis of the structure,function and existing problems of the existing VTS system.By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of some common ship accident prediction methods at home and abroad as well as the factors affecting ship navigation safety,and combining the characteristics of data acquisition and processing in VTS system,this paper studies the key technology of intelligent ship navigation risk prediction,that is,ship navigation risk prediction method,and constructs a ship navigation risk prediction model based on cloud model.The simulation experiment and traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are compared and analyzed.The experimental results show that the prediction method based on cloud model can reflect the essence of prediction.It has the advantage of solving complex non-linear problems,and can fully consider many factors affecting ship navigation safety in the prediction of ship navigation risk.Through the establishment of evaluation index system database,quantitative rules database and index weight database,this method can automatically analyze and infer ship-related information,and then achieve the function of risk prediction.It can improve the intelligent level of VTS system,reduce the work intensity of VTS supervisors,and make the risk prediction of ships in VTS system no longer rely on manual work.It can be seen that this method is feasible and can be applied to existing VTS systems.