Research On Investment Risk Management Of Phosphorus Building Gypsum Project Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of industry in China,as the production of phosphoric acid produced in the process of solid waste,emissions of phosphogypsum also increases increasingly,arbitrary discharge can cause pollution to the environment,and the processed ChengJianZhu materials can not only reduce quantity of phosphogypsum stacking,but also can reduce the damage to the natural environment,therefore of phosphogypsum resource utilization of it has been an important subject of the development of the industry.Construction industry is the pillar industry of national economy in our country,using industrial solid waste in the production of new building materials to replace traditional building materials and its application to building for the national development of circular economy,promote the sustainable development of economy is of great significance,as part of the national strategy,introduced the relevant laws and regulations,under this big background,many construction companies and phosphorus chemical enterprises are to carry out the phosphorus gypsum building project,using industrial solid waste phosphogypsum to produce phosphorus gypsum block,phosphorus buildings plasterboard and other new building materials products,but for any investment activity of the project,the benefits and risks is always accompanied by Especially under the situation that the market of phospho-building gypsum industry in China is not complete,once the risk occurs,it may make the investors suffer huge losses.Therefore,the investment in phosphogypsum project is faced with both opportunities and risk factors.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to pay attention to and study the investment risk management of phosphogypsum project.Because the phosphorus gypsum building project has the complex technology,long cycle,which involves many risk factors and current studies of phosphorus gypsum building project investment risk is less,the lack of recognition and analysis of its investment risk factors evaluation model,and based on the national natural science fund project "beta half water phosphogypsum and two water phosphorus gypsum crystal crystal model design and computer simulation study and horizontal topic project" use Yunnan desulphurization gypsum and phosphogypsum building materials products "as the research application background,mainly for the following research:(1)phosphorus gypsum building industry at home and abroad based on the new product project risk management,risk management,and the research status of carding,combined with the characteristics of phosphorus gypsum building project,from the technical research and development stage,stage of industrialization,sales all phase identification of phosphorus gypsum building project investment risk factors,establish phosphorus gypsum building project investment risk factor table;(2)DEMATEL method was used to analyze the centrality and influence degree of each risk factor,and ISM was used to establish the hierarchy among risk factors,so as to further analyze the correlation between risk factors;(3)establish the bayesian network model,quantitatively study the probability of the occurrence of various risk factors,carry out sensitivity analysis,risk prediction analysis and risk cause diagnosis,and look for the risk factors sensitive to the investment risk of phosphogypsum project.This paper comes to the following conclusions:(1)with the help of the WBS-RBS method,the risk factor table of phosphogypsum project was established from the perspective of project progress.Throughout the project development process,the main consideration from technology research and development,production to sales stage three main process,technology research and development stage to identify six risk factors,13 production stage to identify risk factors,risk factors identified seven sales stage,tries to comprehensively identify phosphorus gypsum building project in different stages of the investment risk.A total of 26 risk factors were identified,and a risk factor table of construction gypsum project investment was established.(2)according to the degree of importance,the risk factors are sorted by calculation,and the hierarchical structure model of the risk factors of construction gypsum project investment is established.DEMATEL method was used to analyze the importance degree of each risk factor of the phosphorus building gypsum project,determine the cause factor and the result factor,eliminate the risk factor with low importance,and finally retain 24 main risk factors;ISM method is used to analyze the relationship between the risk factors existing in the construction gypsum project,and a hierarchical structure model is established among the risk factors.(3)establish a bayesian network model for investment risk assessment of phosphogypsum project.Based on the theory of bayesian networks,with its strong on the analysis of the uncertainty of advantage,will explain into bayesian network structure model,by collecting expert information,get prior probability and conditional probability of each risk factor is calculated in the input model,finally get the project investment risk factors have a probability of 41.4%,to find the most sensitive to market not predict risks,the risk factors of risk prediction analysis,and risk for the project for diagnosis.(4)according to the calculation results of the bayesian network model and the risk assessment results of the phosphogypsum project,the risk control countermeasures for the risk factors most sensitive to the investment risk of the phosphogypsum project were proposed,and Suggestions were put forward to provide some references for the risk control and management of the phosphogypsum project.