The Research On The Early Decision Model Of Underground Urban Utility Tunnel Construction Based On MIVES And Real Option Theory

China's urban development process has entered a stage of rapid development.However,the construction of pipe corridors in many cities still construct directly underground or overhead,and there are many disadvantages that affect the city's view,low space utilization,and low security.The urban underground utility tunnel can realize the intensive and efficient use of the underground space of the city through the unified planning and management of different types of public pipelines in the underground space,which can well solve the drawbacks of direct buried and overhead pipelines.The urban underground utility tunnel is of great significance to the sustainable development of the city.The decision-making stage is very important in the whole construction process of the underground utility tunnel.How to make the scientific and comprehensive consideration of various influencing factors for decision-making analysis of the underground utility tunnel in the early stage of decision-making,so as to ensure the smooth development of the later projects is very important.Therefore,this study aims to solve the shortcomings of the current urban underground utility tunnel in the early stage decision-making research,which cannot simultaneously quantitatively consider various influencing factors.In this paper,The Integrated Value Model for Sustainable Assessment(MIVES)is applied to the construction of decision-making models to comprehensively and quantitatively consider the influencing factors of economic,social,environmental and technological aspects.The constructed model also uses real option theory for the calculation of economic benefits,which allows the project to make the calculation of economic benefits closer to the real situation of the project while considering more project risks and managing flexible value.The core content of this research is the establishment of the decision-making model in the early stage of urban underground utility tunnel construction.Firstly,through the fuzzy Delphi method to collect expert opinions,the index system for influencing the decision-making factors of pre-construction decision-making for urban underground utility tunnel decision-making is established,and then through AHP to determines the weight of the indicator system.Next,define the calculation method of each index variable,in which the real option theory is used to calculate the economic benefit part,and then the value theory is used to standardize the variables expressed by different units.Finally,the calculation formula for the feasibility of urban underground utility tunnel construction and the significance of the scores are determined.Finally,the paper explains the use methods and steps of the model and the results achieved through the case,and the sensitivity analysis proves the operability and feasibility of the proposed model.The pre-construction decision-making model established in this paper can provide a more objective,scientific and comprehensive decision-making idea when the relevant government departments conduct the evaluation,comparison and selection of the plan in the early stage of urban underground utility tunnel construction.At the same time,the model can also be used for evaluation and comparison of other similar projects,only needing the adjustment of the influencing factors and weights before use.