Research On Passenger Flow Forecast And Ticket Allocation Optimization Of Inter-city Railway Under High-speed Railway Shunting Conditions

With the high-speed railway network in China gradually ramifying all over the country,high-speed railway has become one of the main modes of transportation for passengers to travel.The high-speed railway of continuous improvement greatly aggravates the competition in passenger transportation market.In this context,the existing seats allocation mode of intercity passenger trains is no longer adapted to market changes and competition.At present,seats assignment of passenger trains is adjusted according to the railway staffs' subjective estimation.However,it is difficult to estimate the demand of passenger accurately based on the subjective experience.Therefore,the phenomenon that seats number of passenger train can't match with passenger demand occurs frequently,which leads to the great loss of transportation capacity and the reduction of its profitability and market competitiveness.In order to strengthen its adaptive capacity and competitiveness in the market,it's urgently needed to predict passenger flow by scientific methods,and optimize the seats allocation on the basics of an accurate estimate of passenger demand.This paper,in the background of a shift in passenger traffic to the high-speed rail,conducts the research of intercity passenger train seats assignment on the premise of a flat fare.Finally,this paper puts forward a model of inter-city passenger train seats allocation to study its optimal strategies.The specific content of this paper is as follows:(1)Firstly,analyze the changes of intercity railway's passenger flow under the influence of high-speed railway and point out the necessity of studying intercity passenger demand prediction and train seats allocation.And then summarize the literature at home and abroad about demand forecasting and seats allocation to provide reference and basis for the construction of passenger flow prediction model and seats allocation model.(2)The composition of China's passenger railway is briefly summarized,and the object and scope of this study are clarified;The paper explains the seats allocation process of China's passenger railway,summarizes the characteristics of intercity railway passenger flow based on relevant literature and data,and analyzes the existing problems of train seats allocation under the existing seats allocation process and passenger flow characteristics.(3)Compared with the forecasting methods of passenger flow in the domain of transportation,this paper chooses multinomial logit model which is applicable to describe passengers' choice behavior to predict passenger flow.The prediction model of intercity passenger trains,based on the main factors that influence passengers' choice behavior and under the context of high-speed rail shunt,lays the foundation for the optimizing of the following seats allotment.Finally,taking Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity Railway as an example,the proportion of diversion of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link to Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity Train is calculated,and the passenger flow in each section is predicted on the basis of historical data,which verifies the validity of the model.(4)According to the development trend of intercity trains,this paper build the seats allocation model.Taking the principles and characteristics of Chinese railway seats allocation into account,the seats allocation model set up with the goal of maximum passenger capacity and the constraint of maximum train capacity and passenger flow demand.Finally,based on the passenger flow prediction of Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity railway,this paper optimizes the seats allocation of Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity train.