Resarch On Renewable Energy Development And Energy Transformation Based On International Comparsion

In the past few decades,promoting renewable energy development has become an important part of energy planning in many developed countries.The two oil crises of the 1970 s caused the economics of Western developed countries that were overreliant on oil imports to be hit hard.Developed countries began to realize the significant impact of oil price volatility on the economy,and incorporated energy security into energy policy.Renewable energy became an alternative to traditional fossil energy.Subsequently,in the 1990 s,renewable energy was linked to sustainable development as part of an international initiative to address climate change.Since then,more and more countries and regions have begun to regard renewable energy as an important part of energy security,sustainable development,environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission reduction.Since 1990,the development of renewable energy has made great progress.The total global consumption has increased from 516.25 Mtoe to 1405.49 Mtoe,with an average annual growth rate of 3.78%,accounting for 10.40%.The development focus has gradually shifted from developed countries in Europe and America to developing countries.Looking back at the history of world energy transformation,human beings have experienced two energy transformations,namely the transformation of biomass energy into coal and the transformation of coal to oil.It is now moving towards the third energy transformation centered on renewable energy.Historical experience shows that the industrial revolution and the energy revolution occur almost simultaneously.The energy revolution can promote the industrial revolution and the tremendous increase in productivity.With the advent of the third energy transformation,the renewable energy sector is expected to become a new economic growth point.Therefore,it is particularly important to analyze and explore the internal mechanisms and impact mechanisms that drive the development of renewable energy.The empirical results of this paper show that the positive drivers of renewable energy development include economic development level,oil price,energy security,urbanization,technological progress,renewable energy feed-in tariff(FIT),and negative drivers including industrialization and per capita Carbon emissions,not significant factors include coal prices,natural gas prices,and renewable energy quota systems(RPS),where the combined implementation of FIT and RPS outperforms the implementation of separate policies.Group studies of developed and developing countries show that both FIT and RPS are effective in developed countries,while developing countries only have FIT effective;the oil and coal prices of developed countries are rising,which have a positive effect on renewable energy development.This kind of competition in the developing country group has not yet been reflected.China is currently the world’s largest renewable energy development country with great potential and leading the world’s renewable energy development.In 2017,China’s coal,oil,natural gas and renewable energy accounted for 60.42%,19.42%,6.60%,1.42%,and 11.76%,respectively.Compared with 2000,coal decreased by 9.42 percentage points,oil decreased by 3.21 percentage points,and renewable energy rose by 6.71 percentage points.China has not completed its second energy transformation,but renewable energy is growing rapidly,and there is a possibility of entering the third energy transition across the second time.This paper establishes a transcendental logarithmic production function model reflecting China’s energy structure,and measures the output elasticity,substitution elasticity and technological progress of each energy factor.The results show that the average output elasticity of coal,oil,natural gas and renewable energy is 0.25,0.21,0.09,0.20 respectively,and shows a year-on-year growth trend;the average elastic value of renewable energy for coal and petroleum is 1.009 and 1.020 respectively,and the mean elastic value of oil and natural gas for coal is 1.014 and 1.002 respectively;the technological progress is from natural gas,renewable energy,petroleum and coal in order from fast to slow.The difference gradually converges,and the technological progress of each element gradually shows an equal development trend.