| The power grid is an indispensable infrastructure for modern economic and social development.The construction and maintenance of the power grid is an important measure to serve the national economy and the people's livelihood.But,the process of power grid construction project is rather complicated and involving large amount of funds.The main body of participation is more and the construction cycle is generally longer.More and more risks need to be considered in the process of project investment and construction.Therefore,it is of great significance to clearly identify the investment benefits and risks of power grid construction projects under the new situation and to evaluate and analyze them.This article introduces briefly the basic situation of Lianyungang Power Supply Company and its power area,and its production management.It introduces the implementation area of distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply Company and the present situation of the power distribution grid frame,as well as its planning target in detail.The investment situation of the project is listed,and the characteristics of the project are analyzed.It is pointed out that the high investment cost that the project may bring is difficult to recover,and then causes the potential problems of the company's operation management risk.In this paper,the distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply company is taken as the research object.This paper studies the investment benefit of this project.The risk of the project investment is analyzed.The main contents include four aspects.First,in order to study the investment benefit of this project,this paper reviews 1 cost indicators and 10 indicators of profitability.At the same time,the measurement methods of all evaluation indexes are introduced.Based on this,the index system of investment benefit evaluation for distribution automation projects of Lianyungang power supply company is established.Second,according to the principles of application,advanced and objectivity,four benefit indexes are selected as the core indexes of investment benefit evaluation in this paper,which are power supply quantity per unit investment,power supply reliability,regional GDP contribution rate and power loss rate.Through analysis and calculation,we get 4 core benefit indicators.The combined investment benefit of the project is 5 million 396 thousand yuan.Third,in the aspect of project investment risk analysis,this paper carefully analyzes the investment environment risk,project implementation risk,capital construction risk,operation and maintenance risk of the four negative risks.And innovatively put forward two positive investment risks of delaying the investment of the follow-up equipment and reducing the repeated investment of the new line.Fourth,based on the above risk analysis,this paper puts forward the standard of risk influence degree.The analytic hierarchy process is used to identify the risk factors.It also establishes a set of five dimensions: high risk,sub-high risk,moderate risk,sub-low risk and low risk.At the same time,combined with the actual situation of Lianyungang power supply company,we put forward the judgement of relative strength and risk.The judgement matrix of A-B level,B1-C level,B2-C level,B3-C level and B4-C level is established.According to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and combined with expert opinions,we get the fuzzy values of each index.Through comprehensive evaluation,the final risk comprehensive assessment value is 0.41.The result of risk comprehensive assessment is medium low.The maximum membership degree of the project is 0.57,the risk assessment index of the project is 0.43,and the risk assessment is medium to low risk.It is concluded that the risk assessment conclusion of the distribution automation project of Lianyungang power supply company is medium low.The conclusion of this paper makes the central enterprises,represented by State Grid Corporation,pay more attention to the requirement of economic benefit and the control of investment risk when they invest in large-scale power projects. |
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