Forecast Based On Attached Load Capacity And Its Application In Power Distribution Planning

Load forecasting is the basic work in network planning,when planning for power projects in the power industry,using load forecasting to protect the power of science and rational planning,selection of voltage,distribution substations and grid structure are according to the results of load forecasting to decide,based on the load forecasting,in order to improve the reliability of electric power planning,load forecasting accuracy and predictability,for network planning huge impact.Master the key technology of load forecasting,studying load characteristic data deeply,it will help to improve the accuracy of load forecasting,reasonable planning security and economy operation mode.At present,load forecasting methods are mostly lack of precision in the distribution network planning,or appears larger workload,and because ignore the importance of load characteristics,quality of work is still should be improved.In this paper,combined with the actual situation of Pudong grid,through the analysis of different areas of customer load characteristics,researching on load forecasting method based on the capacity of the attachment,solving the problem that load forecasting accuracy is not enough,and the results will be refined,and applied to the distribution system planning,to improve the utilization of power equipment.The main contents of this paper include:?.Studying load data in the nature of the different users,different regions,and distribution network equipment,to get the relationship between capacity and required coefficient;?.Using load as the basic element by point,line and surface as a combination of a lot of points,to get ideas load forecasting network equipment,researching on load forecasting method based on the capacity of the attachment,to calculate the user's maximum load,guiding grid planners predict the exact kind of equipment load levels,and combined with the optimized coefficients required,to forecast load of Pudong grid,verifying the accuracy of the load forecasting method,confirming the practical value of the study;?.Studying combinations of different users,based on the analysis on the same user load characteristics,capacity ratio of different users of load characteristics within one day,studying quick calculation methods on the capacity of the load attachment,to draw speed calculation formula,it can be applied to practical integrated regional power planning,effectively to improve the economic efficiency of distribution network planning and operation of the distribution network;?.In practical work,when calculating the maximum attachment capacity,only considering the power factor,and operating load rate,greatly inhibited the capacity utilization rate of equipment attached,by analyzing the regional load characteristics,to apply to the distribution system planning,and increasing the impact of required coefficients,thus more scientific computing circuit,thus to scientific compute attached maximum capacity of lines,transformer and other distribution network equipment,and deriving access of different users attached transformer capacity,forming an effective plan,further improving the utilization of distribution grid assets and enhancing the quality of the grid planning.