Research On Load Characteristics And Load Torecasting To Power Grid Planning

The operation of power planning faces great challenges with the development of power gird and deep-going power reform.Ensuring the stability of operation and the accuracy of investment in large-scale power grid planning has become the crucial and difficult point faced by power companies nowadays.The load forecasting that is the basic work of the power grid planning are vital for power companies.Electricity consumption,economic factors,climate and environmental factors will affect the load characteristics,which brings many problems for the forecasting of power load.Therefore,in order to improve the efficiency of power grid planning,this paper present methods of load characteristics optimization and improve load prediction based on the analysis of load characteristics.Firstly,this paper elaborates the background and significance of the research and analyzes the current situation of power grid planning,characteristic analysis and load forecasting,explain the needs of the power grid.Secondly,this paper conducted a comprehensive investigation on the status quo of the regional power grid.In order to describe the changes of load characteristics correctly,a number of specific load curves and indictors are used.Based on the investigation of the load characteristics of the power grid,this paper analyzes the load characteristics by the curve and the load indictors from the load curves of year,typical day deeply.This paper used the comparative method of maximum load,analyzes the cooling load influenced by temperature.Combined with various factors affecting the power load characteristics,the grey correlation is used to analyze the factor correlation.Thirdly,to guide the investment of power grid planning and construction more accurately,this paper forecasted the load according to multiple factors including the temperature and the three factors affecting the load characteristics.The method of load forecasting is based on gray model algorithm,neural network algorithm and spatial load density algorithm that are combined with the load characteristic analysis results and the correlation analysis results.Finally,this paper applying the load forecasting results to the grid planning.Meanwhile,compare the effect of the load forecasting results with conventional load forecasting results applied to the power planning of actual area,verifying the load forecasting results considering the influencing factors more accurately,and improving the economics of grid planning and construction investment.Combination theory with practice in this thesis,a set of load forecasting models and that fits to the characteristics of city-level regions was put forward and obtains satisfactory results.