Research On Zombie Enterprise Spillover Effect Transmission Mechanism And Control System Based On Supplier Perspective

Under the new normal of slowing growth,some industries have over-invested,which has brought excess capacity while weakening the efficiency of resource allocation and hindering economic development.Some enterprises that have been eliminated by the market rely on government subsidies and bank credit support to continue to “suck blood”,leading to a problem of zombie enterprises.In a complex supply chain environment,zombie companies are characterized by high debt,low profitability,high “blood-sucking” and low turnover,which are transmitted to other upstream and downstream nodes through the supply chain and have spillover effects,resulting in long-term and short-term decline in performance of other business nodes.Theoretical analysis and actual cases show that the “bullwhip effect” and the cost of substitution have led to a more significant impact on the spillover effects of suppliers by zombies.Therefore,an in-depth study of the transmission mechanism of zombie enterprise spillover effects in the supply chain and the construction of a comprehensive evaluation model for the supply chain zombie enterprise' spillover effect will help to analyze the impact of zombie enterprise spillover effect on supply chain node enterprises,especially supplier companies,so as to take precautionary measures based on its actual situation,to achieve early prevention and early control of the spillover effect of zombie enterprises.The paper studies the transmission mechanism of zombie enterprise spillover effect and constructs the control system based on the supplier's perspective as follows:(1)summarizes the domestic and foreign literatures on the control system of zombie enterprises,supply chain spillover effects and supply chain risks,and the current research results are briefly reviewed.(2)Starting from the spillover effect of zombie enterprise,using the method of inductive deduction to study and analyze the concept and basic principle of supply chain zombie enterprise spillover effect,and from the supply chain zombie enterprise spillover effect conduction factor,conduction carrier and conduction host three key elements,making an indepth analysis of the transmission mechanism of zombie enterprise spillover effects in the supply chain.(3)Based on the concept of supply chain zombie enterprise spillover effect control system,combined with the three key elements of zombie enterprise spillover effect in the supply chain,the control system of supply chain zombie enterprise spillover effect is constructed.(4)Based on the sample data of A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2017,scientifically select evaluation indicators from the perspective of suppliers,and jointly analyze the analytic hierarchy(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE),build a comprehensive evaluation model of spillover effect transmission results to comprehensively assess and measure the impact of zombie enterprises spillover effects on suppliers.(5)In order to prevent and control the impact of spillover effects on suppliers in advance,this paper combines the comprehensive evaluation model with time series,constructs an early warning system for zombie enterprise spillover effects based on supplier perspective,and proposes 8 measures to prevent risks.According to the supplier-based zombie enterprise spillover effect control system,this paper takes the domestic XX grid company as an example to explain the application method of AHPFCE evaluation model and uses the calculation principle to determine the impact of spillover effect of downstream zombie enterprise customer is relatively more intensive than the normal corporate customers.According to the calculation results of each layer index,this paper combines 8 precautionary measures to propose the prevention and control strategy of supply chain zombie enterprise spillover effect.The research results of this paper can help to provide methods for other supply chain node enterprises,especially supplier enterprises to evaluate and control the impact of zombie enterprise spillovers in the supply chain.At the same time,in the process of disposing of zombie enterprises,negative externalities of zombie enterprises in the supply chain are also causing concern.