Research On Project Robust Scheduling Based On Risk Transfer Theory

With the continuous exploration and pursuit of human beings,the sustainable development of science and technology and the emergence of new achievements,in this environment and trend,the scale of the project is becoming larger and larger,and the complexity is getting higher and higher.Facing the high requirements of modern projects,traditional project management methods have become difficult to deal with.Robust scheduling is a new research field derived from RCPSP,and has rapidly become a research hotspot in the field of project management in recent 10 years.Robust scheduling constructs a feasible project scheduling plan by inserting a time buffer,which aims to absorb the interference caused by uncertainties in the process of project implementation and ensure the normal execution of the project.In robust scheduling,how to insert time buffer is the focus of research.With the introduction of resource flow network concept,the research breadth of robust scheduling problem is further expanded.Based on risk transfer theory and robust scheduling theory,combined with GERT network model,this paper makes a comprehensive and in-depth study of resource flow network construction method and decentralized mitigation algorithm.The main work is summarized as follows:Firstly,a resource flow network optimization algorithm(GRAS)considering the risk degree of each activity is proposed.This method calculates the risk value of each activity by using the graphical evaluation technology(GERT).In resource allocation,the risk value of the activity is taken as the main criterion,and other criteria are combined to ensure the stability and optimality of the generated resource flow network.By designing simulation experiments,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing with similar resource flow network optimization algorithms.Secondly,a decentralized buffer algorithm(GRC)based on risk degree is designed according to the correlation among activities in the project.This method uses graphical review technology(GERT)to calculate the risk value of each activity in the project network,selects the activity with the greatest risk value besides virtual activity in the baseline scheduling plan,inserts a unit time buffer before it,and then iterates repeatedly until the deadline or the total risk value cannot be reduced anymore,so as to obtain the final scheduling plan.By designing simulation experiments and comparing with similar algorithms,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.Finally,the resource flow network optimization algorithm and the decentralized buffer algorithm proposed in this paper are applied to a substation construction project to construct a robust scheduling plan with resource constraints and deadlines.In the process of project execution,there are many unexpected situations,which have seriously hindered the smooth progress of the project.However,the scheduling plan based on the method proposed in this paper has not been affected,and all the work has been completed smoothly before the deadline.Through the actual construction project of a substation construction project,the practicability of the method proposed in this paper in the actual project management is fully illustrated.