Decomposition And Forecasting Research On The Household Electricity Consumption In China

In the context of global low-carbon development,China's energy development situation is grim.The internal performance is that the large-scale,high-intensity haze weather impels the transformation of energy structure,while the external performance is that the task of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is arduous.In the present ?new normal? economic mode,the household is a major driver of China's electricity consumption growth.In this economic model,the household electricity consumption accounts for a large part of the new electric supply.Compared with industrial electricity,residential electricity consumption has a larger peak-to-valley difference,which will greatly reduce the operational efficiency of the power industry.To guide the development of the electric power industry in adapting to this situation,this study used the household electricity consumption and population data of 30 provinces during 2001–2015,a three-dimensional decomposition model,and a multivariate linear regression model based on partial least squares to explore the driving factors of China's household electricity consumption growth and forecast its future development trend before 2030.The three-dimensional decomposition model adopted in this paper can completely decompose the decomposition index to ensure the accuracy of the decomposition results.And the regression prediction model based on partial least squares can not only meet the needs of small sample analysis,but also eliminate the multi-colliearity interference,which accurately predict the development trend of Chinese household electricity consumption.Empirical analysis drew the following conclusions:(1)China's household electricity consumption growth is mainly attributed to the improvement of its living standards and still has great potential.From 2001 to 2015,the increase of electricity consumption per capita caused by the improvement of living standards accounted for 97.26% of the total increase.Considering that many areas in China are still not rich and in rapid development,there is still a great potential for the growth of electricity consumption per capita in China,which requires a large amount of electricity to meet future household demand.(2)Population increase and provincial population structure adjustment have little impact on household electricity consumption growth.China's population grew from 1.276 billion in 2001 to 1.375 billion in 2015,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.55%,much lower than the world's population growth rate of 1.19%.With the slow growth of China's population,the growth rate gap between different regions is very small.(3)the household electricity consumption in a province is closely related to the level of economic development and has no significant with geographical location.Considering that the Chinese government's financial subsidies for household electricity use have kept China's household electricity prices low,developed regions should take more responsibility to mitigate the growth of household electricity consumption.(4)the household electricity consumption per capita will keep growing before 2030.It will increase to 0.80 and 1.41 thousand kWh per capita in 2020 and 2030,respectively,with a mean annual growth rate of 6.32%.In fact,although the growth speed is fast,it is still in the low-level stage during this period.In 2030,it will only equal to that in the EU and approximately one third of that of the United States(their household electricity consumption generally kept steady in recent years),respectively.This implies that China's household electricity consumption per capita will still be far from the peak during this period.(5)China's household electricity consumption will increase to 2.24 trillion kWh in 2030,which is 2.89 times that in 2015,and will not reach its peak.The implementation of the universal two-child population policy will have no significant impact on these forecasting results.Even if the implementation of a comprehensive two-child policy can lead to rapid population growth,it will only increase the size of families and not increase the number of families by 2030.To mitigate the impacts of the household electricity consumption growth,it is necessary for the Chinese government to adjust its household-related energy policies on the basis of ensuring the supply of electricity to residents.(1)The power sector should protect the electricity supply of residents and adapt to the growth of residential electricity consumption.(2)Optimizing the multi-step electricity price.Formulate more reasonable multi-step electricity price policies for different regions and different levels of economic development to promote the fairness of residents' electricity consumption and prevent the rich from hitchhiking.(3)Setting cool and heat storage price.Predictably,the share increase of the household electricity consumption will lead to the larger peak valley difference of the power grid.At present,China only has cool and heat storage prices for commercial and industrial electricity consumer.Similar prices for household electricity consumption will help to reduce the above peak-valley difference.(4)Developing the micro-grid.The micro-grid can effectively integrate various sources of distributed generation,especially renewable energy sources,and hence reduce the dependence on the transmission network.