Research On Risk Assessment Of Renewable Energy Finance Based On System Dynamics

In the process of rapid development of China's economy,due to the high input and high consumption of energy resources,a series of environmental pollution problems have arisen,accompanied by sustained and rapid growth of energy demand.Under the realistic conditions that the irrational energy structure is further aggravated,the development of renewable energy has become an inevitable choice for China's energy development strategy transformation.Renewable energy is a capital-intensive industry,and its development is inseparable from the strong support of the financial industry.The efficient combination of the renewable energy industry and the financial industry has become the key to the healthy and sustainable development of the renewable energy industry.In the process of the coupling development of the two major industries,a series of risk issues have been highlighted,which will seriously affect the transformation and development of the renewable energy industry and even China's economy and society.Therefore,studying the financial risk of the renewable energy industry has important practical significance.In this context,this paper uses the system dynamics method to establish a financial risk assessment model for renewable energy industry,and systematically identify and evaluate the risks related to the financial sector of renewable energy industry.Based on the definition of the concept of renewable energy financial risk,this paper systematically sorts out the three major types of risks involved in the renewable energy industry finance:policy,market and cost.The composition of various risks and the causal relationship between various risk factors are analyzed in detail.Based on this,the system dynamics modeling of financial risk assessment of renewable energy industry is carried out.Take the wind power project as an example,determine the initial value of the model boundary risk factor,and conduct a financial risk assessment on the case project.Based on the design of the simulation benchmark scenario,the multi-scenario simulation is further carried out through the characteristics of industrial development,and the evolution of related risks under different scenarios is analyzed.The research results show that policy risk is the main factor affecting the financial risk of early renewable energy.With the continuous reduction of policy risk and cost risk,the fluctuation of market risk becomes the main factor that mainly affects the financial risk of renewable energy.At the same time,the reduction of power generation cost can effectively reduce the cost risk and increase the policy risk,but the increase of policy risk has a certain time lag.Increasing electricity price subsidies can effectively reduce policy risks,and increasing financing channels will significantly reduce the financial risks of renewable energy.The results and methods of this study can help relevant government departments and investors to evaluate the financial risk of renewable energy industry and provide some theoretical support and decision-making reference.