Feasibility Analysis And Risk Assessment Of Direct Trading For Bulk Consumer With Renewable Energy

On March 5,2015,the CPC Central Committee issued relevant documents on the reform of power system.This puts power system reform on the agenda once again after the publication of the No.5 Document of the Electric Power Reform.Today,the open form of the electricity market is mainly large consumer direct power purchase.In response to the call of the country,and in line with the national energy strategy,large consumer direct power purchase advocated the promotion of renewable energy consumption and focused on distributed energy.Compared with conventional energy,clean energy has a very strong uncertainty.The analysis of direct power purchase presents new challenges: On the one hand,it is necessary to analyze whether the users on both sides of supply and demand have the feasibility of direct power purchase before trading,that is,whether they can sign a trading contract.On the other hand,when the agreement is reached after the transaction,there are still certain risks for the users on both sides of the supply and demand for the contracts that have been signed.Therefore,the feasibility analysis and risk assessment of direct trading for large users are of great significance to the development of the electricity market,and provide theoretical basis for the bidding rules and clearing rules of the later direct power purchase.First of all,unlike traditional electricity,new energy sources are volatile,random,and intermittent.Therefore,the analysis of feasibility of large consumer direct power purchase is divided into two parts: economic feasibility and physical feasibility.The economic feasibility of the study in this paper considers factors such as the cost of electricity generated by the power generation company,the supply and demand situation,and historical experience.Aiming at the credit level of both sides of supply and demand users,a large consumer direct power purchase strategy involving new energy involved in credit rating was proposed.Analyze the degree of matching of power consumption curves for both users of supply and demand based on the uncertainty of the new energy generation and large user load with the consideration of users to obtain direct power purchase rights.Users with similar characteristic curves will conclude deals and eventually form a feasibility analysis system for large consumer direct purchase of new energy consumption.Then identify the influencing factors including the natural risk on the supply side,the settlement risk on the demand side,and the transaction risk on both sides of supply and demand using the trading results.Using Bayesian risk assessment method,entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process,a supply-side and demand-side contract execution risk assessment method was proposed.Form direct power purchase risk assessment of large consumer involved in clear energy,combining the transaction risks arising from the interaction of supply and demand on both sides and taking into account the respective risks of power generation companies and large consumers.Finally,the feasibility analysis and risk assessment method proposed in this paper are verified by the specific data of a pilot large consumer direct power purchase.The results show that the feasibility analysis and risk assessment method of large consumer direct power purchase with the credit level involved in this paper can obtained the final transaction result.By avoiding key risk factors,it can improve the efficiency of the power market and reduce the risk of large consumer direct power purchase.