Credit Risk Assessment Of Supply Chain Finance In New Energy Vehicle Based On Modified KMV-DEMATEL Model

The new energy vehicle industry has a broad development prospect.However,due to the large initial investment,uncertain return and lack of fixed assets,it often encounters credit discrimination in traditional financing.Supply chain finance has been proved to be one of the important modes to alleviate the financing difficulty.However,in the credit process,many participants and complex business models in supply chain finance bring new challenges to credit risk assessment.In order to solve the credit risk assessment problem of new energy vehicle related enterprises in the supply chain finance mode,this thesis carried out the following research:First,identify the risk factors in the new energy vehicle supply chain financial model.This thesis analyzes the business characteristics of new energy vehicle supply chain finance and the formation mechanism of credit risk,summarizes the influencing factors and measurement indicators of credit risk,and adds four innovative indicators based on the traditional credit risk evaluation indicators according to the characteristics of new energy vehicle industry and credit risk.They are three industry oriented indexes and default distance index introduced from KMV model.Secondly,for the innovation index of default distance,a measurement method based on the modified KMV model is proposed.In view of the shortcomings of the classical KMV model,this thesis uses the non tradable shares to modify the parameter estimation of the equity value in the model,optimizes the parameter estimation of the equity value volatility combined with the GARCH(1,1)model,and then modifies the default point according to the debt situation of Chinese enterprises.In addition,an example is introduced to verify that the modified KMV model is superior to the classical KMV model in distinguishing different credit risk enterprises,and it is proved that the default distance can identify a certain credit risk,but it is not completely accurate because it is too one-sided,which proves that it is scientific and feasible to add it into the credit risk assessment system.Then,based on the credit risk assessment of new energy vehicle supply chain finance mode,the evaluation index system is built and the corresponding evaluation model is proposed.In the construction of credit risk evaluation index system,this thesis puts forward a screening method of graph theory and correlation,simplifies the evaluation index,and constructs the evaluation index system of target layer criterion layer index layer.In the process of building the evaluation model,DEMATEL model is introduced to analyze the index relationship and calculate the weight.Entropy and triangular fuzzy number are introduced to improve the DEMATEL model according to the different composition of the index layer and the criterion layer.It not only reduces the subjective randomness,but also takes into account the fuzziness of the language,and obtains the weight calculation method in line with the business characteristics and the actual supply chain.In the aspect of information integration,the evaluation model adopts the bottom-up linear weighting method,and the final value is the credit risk of supply chain finance.Finally,this thesis selects 50 listed companies from the new energy vehicle supply chain as the application objects,and evaluates them by combining the modified KMV and the improved DEMATEL supply chain financial credit risk evaluation model.The results show that: at the company level,the most efficient way to reduce credit risk should be to optimize the factors such as the turnover rate of accounts payable,the ratio of current assets to income,and the level of governance;At the supply chain level,in 2020,the average credit risk of new energy vehicle related enterprises is relatively high,especially the credit risk level of downstream vehicle manufacturers and charging pile operators is the highest,which may be affected by the epidemic and the large amount of investment in their own construction;In the aspect of industry development,the credit risk of supply chain finance mode is lower than that of borrowing enterprises,so it is easier for enterprises to obtain credit in this mode,which is conducive to improving financing efficiency and promoting industry development.