Research On Rail Traffic Bidding Model Based On Game Theory

Since urban rail transit was built in Beijing in the 1970 s,it has spread rapidly in other densely populated cities in China.By October 2018,36 cities in China had opened rail transit.Nowdays,the construction of Guangdong,Hong Kong,Macao and Dawan District has risen to a national strategy,and nearly 100 subway lines have been planned,which showed that the construction of urban rail transit in China has been boomingly running.It is essential to research the bidding price of rail transit projects,for Bidding is a common bidding method,and the bid price is the key factor in the bidding of the project.Most of the existing bidding quotation game models use the “low-price bidding method judged as reasonable”.The main reason is that the “comprehensive bid evaluation method” is very complicated to calculate using the conventional game model.In order to explore the game model of the “Comprehensive Evaluation Method”,it provides a theoretical basis for bidders’ bidding decisions,reducing the time cost and economic cost of blind investment by enterprises.Taking the construction project of rail transit in G province as the research object,the bidding quotation game model based on "comprehensive bid evaluation method" is constructed.First of all,the literature analysis method is used to understand the characteristics and process of bidding,bidding and bid evaluation of rail transit projects,and to clarify the research significance and background of the project.Secondly,the field investigation method and data collection method are used to ensure the authenticity and validity of the data in the research.The data was analyzed and processed using mathematical statistics.Then,based on the above preparatory work,a linear regression model is introduced on the basis of the traditional quotation,and the linear relationship between the quotation price and the control price in the civil construction project of the No.1-12 rail transit in G province is studied.The empirical formula between the price and the control price then predicts the bid price.Finally,based on the prediction of the bid price,using the matrix game and the best strategy in the game theory,from the perspective of the bidder,establish the bid evaluation model of the“comprehensive bid evaluation method”,and then assist the bidder to make a more reasonable decision making.Using G Province Rail Transit Line 13 as an engineering example to verify the scientific and rationality of the bidding quotation game model.The results show that the bidding quotation game model can predict the bid price,the forecast deviation rate is 0.17% to 0.23%,and it is more accurate than the unary linear regression model in the forecasting price,and the accuracy rate increases by 0.04%-0.10%.Secondly,in guiding the bidder’s decision-making,the quotation strategy derived from the established game model has proved to be feasible inpractice.Through the research on the rail transit bidding quotation of the “Comprehensive Evaluation Method” of G Province,it provides a certain reference for the bidding quotation of similar projects.The main research conclusions of the thesis are:(1)The empirical formula for the price and control price of the civil engineering construction project of G Province is y=4764520+0.8784 x.(2)Using the game theory based rail transit bidding model to predict the bid price is more accurate than using the linear regression model.(3)The bidding quotation model of rail transit project based on game theory can assist bidders to make early decision-making,reduce the time cost and economic cost of bidders blind bidding,and ensure the bidders get the most benefit while pursuing a higher probability bid.