Research On China's Energy Security Evaluation Method In Economic Transformation Period

Energy maintains the basic survival activities of human beings and is the material basis for human survival and development.It is not only related to the economic development and security of the whole country,but also of great significance to the country's political,military and other fields of security.With the upgrading of China's economic transformation,the growth rate of domestic energy demand is slowing down,which brings favorable opportunities to the transformation of energy industry structure and the adjustment of energy consumption structure.At the same time,it also puts forward higher requirements for energy security.Energy security includes not only the risk of interruption of energy supply,but also multi-level contents including stable energy prices,energy diversification,environmental protection and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.Under the background of China's economic transformation,this paper constructs an energy security evaluation index system for China's oil,natural gas and coal based on the "4A" energy security concept proposed by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center(APERC),and makes an empirical analysis on the energy security situation from 2006 to 2015.This paper selects 16 indexes from the four dimensions of energy availability,availability,affordability and acceptability to construct an energy security evaluation index system,and uses four methods of coefficient of variation(CVM),entropy method(EM),principal component analysis(PCA)and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to calculate the index weight,and analyzes China's energy security situation from 2006 to 2015.Through comparative analysis of the results,the evaluation results of a single evaluation method have large deviation,so an integrated evaluation method combining four methods is proposed.The evaluation method takes into account the advantages and disadvantages of subjective and objective weights,and the evaluation results are representative.This integrated evaluation method is used to quantitatively analyze the energy security situation from 2006 to 2015.The results show that the overall energy security level in China is below 0.5 from 2006 to 2015,and the energy security situation is grim.After 2011,the security situation of the three energy sources has a trend towards a higher level of security,but this trend is not obvious.There is still much room for improvement in China's energy security.The factors that threaten energy security still exist for a long time.It is still necessary to continuously take effective measures to improve China's energy security level and make it develop towards a higher level.Based on the above analysis of China's energy security situation,combined with the current domestic and international energy situation,this paper finally puts forward several policy recommendations to improve China's energy security situation.