The Risk Prediction Research Of International EPC Project Based On GSO-ELM

With the gradual layout and construction of the “Belt and Road” economic belt,China's construction enterprises have accelerated the pace of investing in overseas markets and undertaking international engineering projects.In recent years,the international engineering projects undertaken by Chinese construction companies have adopted the EPC(Engineering Procurement Construction)general contracting model.The management tasks of the contractor are very heavy,and the international engineering project has complex environment and numerous risk factors.If the construction enterprises in China are unclear and unpredictable of these risk factors,it is very likely to cause huge losses in the economic aspect of the enterprise and affect the enterprises.Overseas development.Therefore,if Chinese construction enterprises want to occupy an advantage in the international market,it is necessary to strengthen the risk prediction of international engineering projects under the EPC mode.Based on the previous researches on the risk of engineering projects,the article summarizes the shortcomings of the previous research institutes,and determines the main research objects and research contents of the paper.This paper takes the risk of international engineering project under the EPC mode as the research object,and mainly studies the risk prediction of international EPC project.First introduced the concept of international engineering project and engineering general contracting mode,and elaborated the basic theory of project risk management.From the perspective of China's construction enterprises as the general contractor of international engineering projects,the risks existing in the whole life cycle of international engineering projects are comprehensively identified and analyzed,and the predictive index system of international EPC project risks is established.Then,using Firefly Algorithm(GSO)to optimize the setting of parameters in Extreme Learning Machine(ELM),a risk prediction model based on GSO-ELM algorithm model is constructed,and the selection of its parameters is analyzed and set in detail.At the end of the paper,some examples of international EPC engineering projects were selected to conduct empirical research on project risk prediction to verify the practical effects of GSO-ELM prediction model application.Finally,the research resultsverify the feasibility and applicability of the algorithm model in the risk prediction research of international EPC engineering projects.It is proved that the GSO-ELM prediction model has practical significance for improving the accuracy of international engineering project risk prediction.