The Theory And Method Of Passenger Flow Management And Control In Urban Rail Transit Stations Based On Station-Line Cooperation

With the booming of the rail transit industry in cities across China,the broadening scale of line network and increasingly convenient metro transfer have led to a sharp increase in rail transit passengers.Accordingly,as the network load pressure is piling up,excessive ridership has become an outstanding issue,especially during peak hours,when stations and trains are more and more crowded than ever.Faced with the normalized supply-demand contradiction and hardly-increasable transportation capacity,it has become an urgent problem in the network operation management of urban rail transit to effectively organize and manage ridership and formulate control strategies to alleviate the pressure of ridership,ensure safety of rail transit operation and improve service quality and operational efficiency.The study on that can provide practical value and theoretical guidance for us.In the context of the actual passenger transportation organization of Shanghai Urban Rail Transit operator with which the author currently works,this paper,focusing on station-line synergy and aiming at the match between transportation capacity allocation and ridership demand,systematically analyzes the influence of transportation supply capacity and passenger travelling demand and the relationship between train operation plan and time-space distribution of ridership,and studies the theory and methodology of ridership control in urban rail transit stations based on station-line synergy,and develops a set of strategies for normalized and standardized ridership control,which can provide auxiliary support for urban rail transit operators’ decision making when formulating ridership control plans.This paper mainly covers the following contents:(1)Analysis on the current ridership control It explores the distribution law of large ridership,current ridership control and experience in implementing the existing control measures through an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of large ridership in urban rail transit and the existing ridership control plan,which provides a basis for formulating and optimizing station-line synergy ridership control.(2)Theoretical analysis on station-line synergy ridership control It analyzes the definition,goal and role of station-line synergy ridership control,sorts out the influencing factors,summarizes the key points,and develops an indicator system for evaluating the effect of the ridership control plan.(3)Proposal of a method for generating the station-line synergy ridershiplimiting plan in the normal large ridership scenario It constructs a two-layer optimization model of the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan based on the ridership data and line operation analysis.The upper layer’s objective is to realize reasonable utilization of the transportation capacity,while the lower layer’s objective is to generate a reasonable station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan.For the upper layer of the model,the full load rate of the bottleneck section of the line is set in advance through an actual demand survey on site,and then the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan is considered.Around the lower layer of the model,a multiobjective planning model is constructed to minimize the number of ridership-limiting stations and the total waiting time of passengers.(4)Design of the combined algorithm for solving the model that generates station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan in the normal large ridership scenario The combined algorithm includes the station ridership-limiting capability solving algorithm based on the queuing theory model,the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan generation algorithm that aims to minimize the number of ridership-limiting stations,and the comparison model and algorithm for performance evaluation of station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan.By searching the bottleneck section of the conveying capacity where the train full load rate is excessive,it analyzes the train’s remaining conveying capacity required for passenger evacuation of the relevant stations in the section.By full load rate control,it formulates the plan for the ridership-limiting location,timing and intensity of the upstream stations,thus laying down clearly the ridership-limiting level and specific measures of ridershiplimiting stations.(5)Case study on the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan in the normal large ridership scenario Taking the down track of Shanghai Rail Transit Line 8 during the morning peak hours as an example,the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan is formulated and compared with the existing single-station ridership-limiting plan,so as to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the model and algorithm proposed in this paper.(6)Analysis on the applicability of the ridership control method in emergency scenarios The applicability and retrofitted method of the model are analyzed in response to three scenarios: ridership change,train delay and pandemic control,along with a discussion on short-term ridership prediction methods in the case of change,train operation diagram adjustment method based on buffer time during delays and suggestions for rail transit operation and management during the pandemic.Through research,this paper comes up with the following innovations:(1)It proposes an index system for evaluation of ridership-limiting effect of urban rail transit stations.Based on the analysis of the definition,objectives,functions and influencing factors of station-line synergy ridership control,this paper establishes an evaluation system that combines both quantitative and qualitative indexes,explains and solves quantitative and qualitative indexes through model analysis and simulation analysis,and then evaluates the implementation effect of station-line synergy ridership control.(2)It establishes a two-stage generation model of station-line synergy ridershiplimiting plan under normal operating conditions.Using the queuing theory method,this paper proposes a station ridership-limiting capacity calculation model to analyze the restriction on the station ridership-limiting capacity.Taking into account the ridership-limiting capacity of a single station and constraints of the full load rate of trains in sections,it puts forward the two-layer generation model of the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan in normal operation.(3)It designs a method for generating the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan based on the evacuation in bottleneck sections of line.By reference to the practical meaning and operation practice of ridership-limiting,this paper,starting from the efficiency of the method,proposes a method for generating the station-line synergy ridership-limiting plan based on ridership estimation and evacuation in bottleneck sections of the line transmission capacity.Under the constraints of passenger transport capacity between sections,station ridership-limiting capacity,number of ridership-limiting stations and limited ridership transfer,this method solves the ridership-limiting plan of each station upon station-line synergy,aiming at minimizing the total number of passengers limited and the total waiting hours.(4)It proposes the solution to station-line ridership control in emergencies.Based on the station-line synergy ridership-limiting model and algorithm in normal conditions,this paper establishes a short-term ridership prediction model and the operation adjustment method against delays in case of major events,abnormal weather and equipment,and proposes parameters like the maximum number of passengers allowed through stations,number of people on platform and full load rate of trains,so as to help better manage the ridership in pandemic control scenarios.