The Optimization Of Safety Index For Inland Shipping Based On Safety Input

As the important part of our comprehensive transportation system,the sustainable and healthy development of inland shipping has great influence on our economy.At present,the scale of economy is continually expanding and the demand continues to increase at the same time,inland shipping take full advantage of its large transport capacity,low power consumption and slight pollution,which maintain its rapid pace of growth.However,safety problem comes with it.How to evaluate inland shipping safety status,how to input security sources and how to adjust its safety input structure to achieve optimal safety status should be long-term focused on for managers.Safety input can enhance the level of inland shipping safety.Theoretically,the more safety input are,the higher safety level is,and it's safer for navigation.But the safety sources are limited,shipping enterprise are not only concerned about safety,but also focus on how to maximize the use of these sources.So the discussion about how to fairly distribute limited safety sources and maximize the safety benefit which means optimizing current safety index is necessary,and it should be the research emphasis.In view of this,the main parts of this paper are as followed:(1)Based on Men-Machine-Environment System Engineering(MMESE),this article carry out a detailed analysis on factors influencing inland shipping safety from crew,vessel,environment and management these four aspects,construct indicator system to evaluate inland shipping safety.Synthesizing fuzzy set theory,expert opinion and survey data,the prior probabilities and conditional probabilities have been obtained,and the evaluating model has been established too.Using Bayesian toolbox in Matlab to carry out Bayesian network inference and bringing in the concept of safety index,the index quantification of inland shipping safety status has been realized.(2)Define the related conception and research scope of safety input,construct the safety input system.Safety input act on evidence code and then influence the safety index,so the category and accounting method of these nodes' safety input hasa close analysis.Then the paper quantify the input for all levels considering the range of evidence code,which lay the foundation of optimizing safety index.(3)On the basis of the constructed calculation model of safety index,the article inject the input for all levels of evidence code,and then establish the optimization model of inland shipping safety index with GA,realizing an organic combination between safety index and input.With the global search of GA,the model get the collection of safety code status when the safety index-input is the best.Combine the instance,the article verify the practicability and operability of this optimization model,and improving the status of evidence node to optimize the safety index,which also provide reference for managers to adjust direction and proportion of safety input.