A System Dynamics Simulation Model For DPVG Development And The Policy Cost In Nantong

Benefitted from the strong support from the Chinese government,the DPVG(distributed photovoltaic generation)in China was boosted in recent years,however,the doubt against the development mode of which had casted shadow to its future,there are reports indicates that the heavy burden of subsidy expenditure is forcing officials reconsidering their policy.Under which circumstances,this paper took Nantong City,Jiangsu Province,China as the object of study,a system dynamics model which looks over the accumulation of DPVG and the government subsidy spending was developed,in which multiple factors like feed-in tariffs(FITs),the proportion of users' self-consumption,installation costs,and the local government's subsidy,etc.are considered.Using the proposed model,we simulated and identified the influence of each factor on DPVG installations and costs of policy from 2016 to 2030 under various scenarios.The results show that,under higher FIT5 s for the cost reduction of PV modules and larger proportions of users choosing “self-consumption” mode and their self-consumption,the government can adopt different gradually diminishing FITs to promote the sustainable deployment of DPVG.Finally,some policy implications which help to coordinate the DPVG development and the government spending are presented in the study.