| In March 2015,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued “the several opinions on further deepening the reform of electric power system”(found [2015] 9),marking the beginning of the new round of electricity market reform which takes controlling the middle and opening the ends as the core.In recent years,market penetrations of distributed photovoltaic(PV)and Electric Vehicles(EVs)has been increasing,which eases the strained resources,environmental pollution,climate change and other global problems to a certain extent.In the situation of electricity market reform as well as increasing investment in PV and EVs,randomness of distributed PV’output and EVs bring the increasing risk to power supply companies.At the same time,competition pressure from other electric power companies is also increasing.Therefore,the study on energy procurement and marketing decision for power supply company considering distributed PV,EVs,demand side response and user satisfaction is conducive to a power supply company to be in an invincible position in the future electricity market.The uncertainties that affect the risk are modeled in this paper.The uncertainties considered include: conventional load,EVs load,distributed PV’s output and market prices.The probability cases are formed on the basis of different probability models,respectively.Finally,the multi-senario of the variables was generated based upon the scenario generation and reduction technique.Based on Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR),a purchase and sale’ portfolio optimization model for power supply company considering distributed PV and EVs is proposed.The model is divided into two sub models: a day-ahead portfolio optimization model considering the expected cost of errors and a balancing market portfolio optimization model considering end customer satisfaction and demand response.The former makes power purchase decisions considering load uncertainty and the expected cost of errors in the wholesale market;On the basis of the former simulation results,considering customer satisfaction and demand response,the latter eliminates electricity imbalance by energy procurement and marketing decision.The simulation analysis is carried out in this paper.The paper analyzes the impact of different factors including risk aversion coefficient,confidence level,EVs market penetration levels,distributed PV installed capacity and user satisfaction on trading strategy,risk and expected profit,respectively.Power supply company can adjust the trading strategy according to its individual risk preference,so that it can make a reasonable trading strategy in the case of users’ approval,and then be competitive in the future electricity market. |
