Research On Risk Early Warning Of PPP Mode For Expressway Project

Under the PPP model,the expressway construction project has the characteristics of large investment amount,long duration and many participants,so the risk factor of the project is increasing.At present,China's expressway construction process,risk management awareness is weak,the risk is not comprehensive and the risk response strategy is unreasonable,etc.,will have adverse effects on the implementation process of the project.Therefore,how to reasonably evaluate and forecast the risk of expressway construction project in PPP mode is the key to the smooth implementation of the project.On the basis of consulting a large number of references at home and abroad,mainly studied the following contents:First of all,based on the risk management ring,the risk early warning of the expressway project under PPP mode is carried out,and the process includes risk early warning index identification?risk police judgment?risk coping strategy?risk early warning index monitoring.Then,from the perspective of the project life cycle,the project is divided into six stages:decision-making,bidding,financing,construction,operation and transfer.Combined with literature analysis and case analysis,the risk factors of the project were identified preliminarily,and the risk factors were revised and divided by expert interviews.According to the principle of early warning index system,the risk early warning index of each stage of the project is established.Secondly,based on the fuzzy matter element theory,the early-warning model of expressway project risk under PPP model is constructed.The risk early warning interval and the risk early-warning index value are determined by the risk matrix method.The index weights are determined by the combination weighting method,and the risk police judgment is judged by the maximum correlation principle in the fuzzy matter-element model,issued an early warning signal which the risk may cause damage to the project,so that the project company participants in a timely manner to take coping strategies to prevent or avoid risks.Finally,the risk early warning analysis of the Y highway construction stage is carried out-to verify the feasibility and rationality of the risk early warning model.It provides a certain reference value for the expressway project participants in the PPP mode.