Research On Investment Benefit Evaluation And Decision Of Power Grid Project Based On Super Efficiency DEA

In recent years,with the gradual deepening of the reform of the power system,although people fully enjoyed the dividends of the reform of the power system,some problems also emerged to the surface.In order to better solve these problems,in March 15,2015,the State Council issued Several Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of Electric Power System by the State Council,and this document has pushed forward a new round of electric power system reform.In the background of price reform of electricity transmission and distribution,the investment benefit of grid will change significantly.It has been unable to adapt to the new situation only by investment to promote the growth of electricity,therefore power grid enterprise have to make the appropriate adjustments to the investment benefit evaluation according to the reform of electricity transmission and distribution,and meanwhile design a set of rapid estimation of investment benefit system in order to provide more objective and accurate for the Power Grid Corp decision-makers.In order to solve this problem,this paper summarize evaluation index system based on the literature review,expert interview.Meanwhile,in order to make the evaluation index system more concise and intuitively applied in the DEA model,the paper uses principal component analysis to simplify the index system of 30 completed projects so that it can reduce the number of decision units for the model without affecting the accuracy of the model.On the other hand,the paper fit the function of the probability distribution of risk,and according to the expert acceptance of different risk experts are divided into optimistic decision makers and ordinary decision makers and pessimistic decision makers by cluster analysis.On the basis of advancing project and resource constrained ratio,4 planed project data were selected to specify the investment decision-making and optimization process of grid project based on super efficiency DEA model.In the abundant resources conditions,if investment efficiency of advancing project and planed project model for investment efficiency is higher than average level,investment ranking is given based on investment efficiency and risk resisting ability of engineering;for the projects which investment efficiency is lower than the minimum the value of advancing project,paper uses the projection principle of DEA model to optimize resources allocation and investment benefit.It is good for the investment decision-makers to further optimize the project plan.