Risk Research For Multi-Scene Incremental Power Distribution Planning Investment Strategy And Asse Utilization

With the continuous deepening of the reform of the power system,the market of incremental distribution network has been let go in an orderly manner.The participation of social capital in the market competition has led to an increase in various uncertainties,posing risks to the investment in power grid enterprises.Increased power distribution pilot announced by the state involves all walks of life in production and life,and the scenario of incremental distribution business is divided.And in different scenarios,research on the investment strategy risk of incremental distribution network can guide the investment direction of enterprises and reduce Investment risk loss,improve business efficiency.In this paper,the new distribution network is divided into two major categories:public welfare and commercial according to the pilot project of new incremental distribution network.The investment risk measurement models are respectively constructed to measure the risk of the two scenarios.Then,Grid asset utilization conducted a risk assessment,as follows:First,this article has carried on the multi-scene research to the increment distribution service.This article introduces the rules for defining the new distribution network,combs the pilot types of the new distribution network,puts forward the criteria for dividing the scene of incremental distribution network,and uses this standard to divide the incremental distribution network into public welfare and commercial Two types,and explains the specific user categories included in each scenario.Secondly,this paper studies the investment risk of public welfare and commercial incremental distribution network respectively.This paper introduces the common methods of risk identification,risk measurement and risk response,identifies the risk of incremental distribution network investment and finds out the main risk factors.From the point of investment loss,this paper builds a public benefit incremental distribution network risk investment model,The commercial incremental distribution network investment risk model is constructed from the perspective of the net present value of the proceeds.Thirdly,this paper conducts a risk study on the utilization of distribution network.This paper analyzes the key factors that affect the utilization risk of distribution network from five aspects of social economy production and management,asset quality,technical equipment and power supply capacity,and then builds a risk index system of asset utilization,and uses improved AHP Distribution network asset utilization risk assessment.Finally,this article through the case hypothesis,carries on the case analysis to the public welfare incremental distribution network risk measurement model,the commercial incremental distribution network risk measurement model and the distribution network asset utilization risk assessment model,and obtains the public welfare type,the commercial type As well as the risk evaluation and evaluation results of the three assets utilization,verify the validity of the model and provide guidance for the power grid enterprises to invest in new distribution network.