Research On Investment Risk And Planning Of Incremental Distribution Network

The introduction of hybrid ownership in incremental distribution business is an important part of the new round of power system reform.Under the background of market competition,distribution network enterprises urgently need to study the investment risk and planning of incremental distribution network.For incremental distribution network,the current research focuses on the discussion of relevant policies and concepts.However,there are few research results related to investment risk and planning of incremental distribution network.This paper focuses on a series of studies of investment risk assessment,optimization of network structure and differential distribution price in incremental distribution network,which has the instructional significance to improvement of investment optimization capability for distribution network enterprises.1)Based on the analysis and induction of investment risk factors in incremental distribution network,this paper establishes the index system of investment risk assessment in incremental distribution network.This assessment index system divides investment risks into four categories:economic risk,technical risk,policy risk and user risk.It summarizes many risks faced by incremental distribution network in the competitive market environment comprehensively and accurately.Then the improved TOPSIS method including absolute ideal solution and vertical projection method is used in this paper to make risk assessment in incremental distribution network and optimize investment projects.2)This paper analyzes the main influencing factors of investment efficiency under the background of market competition,including the capacity of the accessed distributed generation,distribution price,network structure and the reliability of elements.On this basis,an optimization model of network structure in incremental distribution network based on life cycle cost is established.In this model,the optimal solution is selected from several common network structures to achieve the best investment benefit in the case of satisfying the reliability requirement of power users.The model can effectively guide the distribution network enterprises to optimize the incremental distribution network structure,and improve the investment cost optimization ability of distribution network enterprises.3)This paper focuses on the study of distribution price,which is the key factor of investment in incremental distribution network.A differential distribution price model for incremental distribution network is established in this paper.The model divides the distribution price into two parts:the basic distribution price and the additional distribution price.Based on the principle of "permitted cost and reasonable profit",the basic distribution price is made according to the life cycle cost and the benchmark income of the project.The additional distribution price is made differently according to the load characteristics of different users.The distribution price model not only ensures the cost recovery and reasonable profit of distribution network enterprises,but also makes differential distribution price for users with different load characteristics.So it will improve the market competitiveness of distribution network enterprises.