Risk Assessment Of Switching Operation Of Distribution Network Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

The development of socio-economic requirements for the reliability of power supply is getting higher and higher.When the distribution line needs to be renovated,if the power supply is used to stop the power supply,the power supply will be interrupted and the reliability of the power supply will be reduced.If the distribution network is switched over and the power supply operation is switched on,the load not involved in maintenance will be transferred Continued normal supply of other lines increases the flexibility,reliability and economy of the distribution network.Jingzhou power distribution company switching operation will cause power distribution lines Jingzhou power distribution network switching operation loop,threatening the safe operation of the power grid.In order to further analyze the risk brought by the switching operation and how to ensure the safety of the operation better,this paper has carried out the research on the operation risk assessment of the Daozha of distribution network.Combining fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and scientific risk indicators of quantified switching operation,combined with the relevant knowledge of risk management theory,this paper evaluates the operational risk of distribution barriers and puts forward corresponding risk prevention and control measures.Firstly,this paper classifies and compares the commonly used risk identification methods through the literature research method.Aiming at the characteristics of distribution network switching operation e.g.risk factors and their kinds are various.Hall three-dimensional structure is introduced to identify the risk.Basing on Hall's three-dimensional structure,reclassify the three dimensions into all-dimensional,all-element and whole-process.Basing on the comprehensive analysis of Jingzhou distribution network operating environment and switching operation,it is found that the main problems in the risk management of switching operation in Jingzhou Power Supply Company are that the scientific project risk assessment system has not been established and the process switching operation lacks risk supervision.And then comprehensively analyze the risk status of Jingzhou Power Supply Company distribution network switching operation from these three dimensions,and accurately identify its main risk factors.Secondly,basing on the existing risk assessment methods and related theories,combined with the characteristics of the switching operation and risk identification results,select 5 primary indicators and 10 secondary indicators to establish the risk evaluation index system.By using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),obtain the relevant experts' opinions on the influence degree of each index relative to the superior index in the form of questionnaire.Finally,determine the weight of each indicator through the consistency test.And then use the fuzzy synthesis method to establish the risk evaluation model,invite the experts to make judgments to the risk index state of the switching operation in Jingzhou power Supply Company according to their own knowledge and experience,afterwards the fuzzy membership degree can be obtained and the fuzzy relation matrix can be established.Carry out the fuzzy matrix synthesis by combining with each index weight,according to the principle of maximum membership degree,it is determined that the overall risk of switching operation of Jingzhou Power Supply Company is in the medium risk state.Finally,combined with the operational risk process and risk management theory,this paper puts forward the countermeasures from the perspective of operational risk,and mainly puts forward the implementation strategies for technical operations with low score in risk assessment,which mainly include strengthening the management of unlock key for the anti-misoperation device and improving the system of anti-misoperation device.Through the research of this article,we further clarify the scientific and effective application of risk management theory in actual Daozha operation,raise the operation of the switch-off operation to the level of scientific risk management,make up the shortcomings of Jingzhou Power Supply Company in risk management at present,Increased flexibility,reliability,and security of distribution network power.