| With the continuous expansion of China’s HSR network,the number of HSR passenger flow ODs has continuously increased.Different passenger flow ODs put forward different requirements for the service level of HSR line planning.It is of great significance to improve the competitiveness of the HSR market by designing suitable service levels of line planning for different levels of passenger flow ODs.This paper studies the impact of the improvement of the service level of high-speed railways on the passenger flow,provides the basis for optimizing the line planning,which has important theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of research at home and abroad,first of all,six evaluation indicators of HSR line planning service level is qualitatively defined in this paper,which are OD service frequency,OD travel time,train fare,transfer service level,train arrival and departure time,percentage of originating trains and terminal trains in each train OD.Different passenger flow ODs have different requirements for the service level of line planning.In view of more than 10,000 passenger flow ODs of HSR,this paper uses hierarchical clustering method to carry out cluster analysis,and obtains a scientific and reasonable clustering method of passenger flow OD of HSR.It takes a certain amount of time for the adjustment of the HSR line planning,usually every 3 or 4 months.However,the OD passenger flow of HSR is constantly changing with time.Therefore,the difference of the passenger flow before and after adjustment of line planning includes two aspects.One aspect is the impact of service level of line planning,the other aspect is the impact of time.Firstly,this article analyzes the law of temporal and spatial distribution of HSR passenger flow from the perspectives of different time periods,analyzes the characteristics of the passenger flow structure.Then method of short-term traffic forecasting was proposed based on winters linear and seasonal exponential smoothing model,and effectively predicts the changes of OD passenger flow of HSR in China over the time.Then,the parameters of HSR line planning are used to establish the impedance function,and an improved gravity model is constructed.Using the aforementioned cluster analysis results,different types of ODs were modeled for parameter calibration by their line planning data and passenger flow data.Finally,a case study is conducted using the passenger flow ODs whose line planning has changed during a certain period of time.The short-term passenger flow forecasting model is used to calculate the influence of time factor on passenger flow,and the improved gravity model is used to predict the passenger flow of these ODs after the train line planning is changed,the predicted passenger flow is compared with the actual passenger flow without time-influencing factors,then the adjustment plan for the train line planning is proposed,and quantitatively studies the impact of increasing the service level of the HSR line planing on the passenger flow. |
