Analysis Of Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate On Chinese Shipbuilding Enterprises

In recent years,as the world shipping market downturn caused by insufficient supply and domestic overcapacity caused by the lack of comprehensive impact of the demand,the shipbuilding industry as a whole is showing a relatively low status quo.Since 2016,the phenomenon of China's shipbuilding industry is not obvious.Shipbuilding is an important carrier of the whole shipping trade,and is closely influenced by the development of shipping industry.The risk of RMB exchange rate changes is more comprehensive and specific to the development of shipbuilding industry.Therefore,it is urgent and important to study the impact of RMB exchange rate risk changes on China's shipbuilding industry.This paper firstly reviewed the domestic and foreign exchange rate risk research and shipbuilding industry,and then introduces the present situation of shipbuilding industry and the exchange rate faced by shipbuilding industry are described.On the basis of qualitative analysis,the paper further analyzes the influence of RMB exchange rate on shipbuilding industry by statistical model.This paper uses the VAR model,the selected variables including the RMB exchange rate,trade development level,the Baltic dry bulk freight index(BDI),waterway passenger transport and China ship exports.Draw the following conclusions:(1)in the short term,because of the relationship between variables and independent variables:Ship exports lagged one period and two period average exchange rate are affected,three to six period lag by the average exchange rate effect is negative,cyclical alternating positive and negative effects.The total volume of China's foreign trade in goods is positively affected,and less affected by the positive impact of real effective exchange rate of RMB;in addition,the ship exports by domestic trade,BDI and waterway passenger transport is less affected.(2)In the long term,because of the relationship between variables and independent variables:Ship exports associated with the average exchange rate,total foreign trade volume was positively and negatively correlated with the total domestic trade,but with increasing lag periods,the average exchange rate impact on ship exports gradually disappeared.On this basis,we proposed the shipbuilding industry exchange rate risk prevention,from the industry perspective and the factories perspective.