| The real estate industry is a pillar industry of the national economy and the important industry directly related to urban construction.Nowadays,the doubt about whether it is overheated or not and the impact on urban space growth has become a hot spot of social and academic circles.Commercial housing is the main part of the real estate industry in China,and its vacancy is a vital indicator reflecting the health status of real estate industry and the urban economic benefits,space benefits and functional benefits.China’s economy and population have simultaneously come to a “new normal”,which would make the problems of high vacancy,high housing prices and great demands in the housing market even more highlight.These problems could cause adverse effects in the efficient use of urban spatial resources and the stable development of the real estate industry.The research on vacancy rate of commercial housing in our country starts late.Lacking of quantitative research on the spatial distribution of commercial housing vacancy makes it impossible to explain the influence of the real estate industry on urban spatial efficiency.So,it is necessary to study the vacancy rate of commercial housing and its spatial distribution characteristics,which would help us correctly discover the present situation and problems of the development of housing market and urban space expansion.Also,it could help us prevent blind development or chaos management,and promote the construction of urban living space,which requires suitable urban economic development environment,reasonable land use planning and appropriate arranged function,and keep the sustainable development of cities.Changsha is an important provincial capital city and regional central city in the central and western regions.Its current situation of economic and commercial housing development is a typical representative of the central and western regions of China.In this paper,we select Changsha city as the object of empirical study and choose random sampling,statistical analysis and GIS spatial analysis method as the main research methods.Based on research and statistical data,the present situation and distribution characteristics of commercial housing vacancy are studied.Further more,the problems,causes,strategies and suggestions are discussed aiming to provide scientific basis for related decision.First of all,the concept of commercial housing vacancy and vacancy rate calculation method is defined in this paper,by reviewing relevant literatures in domestic and international.Secondly,by sampling randomly,the actual datum of 561 vacant commercial housing estates at the end of 2014 are collected,which cover 5 districts of Changsha and Xingsha development zone.Also,the spatial datum of commercial housing vacancy rate,selling price,commercial center and population distribution are gathered and sorted out.Thirdly,the present situation of commercial housing vacancy is studied by using GIS,Contour and Kernal methods.Based on statistical analysis,buffer analysis and correlation analysis,the vacancy distribution characteristics are studied from such perspectives as urban economic efficiency,expansion efficiency,functional and economic efficiency of housing developments.It is found that the vacancy distribution owns the property of high correlation and apparent overlap between the high vacancy zone with high density and urban development areas,commercial center districts,high-price housing areas and high population density regions.Such vacancy distribution characteristics suggest that such areas need to be improved as the planning and construction of commercial housing in the development areas,the regeneration and transformation of traditional commercial center districts,the size and layout of the expensive housing areas and the commercial housing type and design in high population density regions.At last,the causes are analyzed from the macro-control policy,the evolution of urban spatial structure,supply structures of commercial housing,consumer demands and other aspects,aiming to propose effective countermeasures to solve the problem of high vacancy and provide reasonable suggestions on optimizing the structure of residential space. |
