Research On The Emission Characteristics And Cost Prediction Of Air Pollutants For China's Thermal Power Generation

With rapid economic growth and industrialization,China's energy consumption and the related pollutant emissions have been increasing significantly.As the most important form of power generation accounting for around 75%in Chinese power generation structure,thermal power generation is emitting various air pollutants,leading to serious environmental impairments and human health issues.An investigation of the trends in regional features of pollutant emissions and control cost is critical to better decision makings regarding.Due to the differences in regional economic development and technological level,appropriate control strategies and policies should are raised by considering the local realities.Combining GAINS-China model with the spatial econometric model,this study used seven socio-economic factors to conduct regression analysis on sulfur dioxide?SO₂?and nitrogen oxide?NO_x?emissions of thermal power generation in 2015 from both global and local perspectives to analyze the driving effects.The global regression results show that population,power demand,power input/output demand and power generation structure are the promotive drivers,while power generation technology and treatment technology are the inhibitory ones.The results of local regression show that power demand and generation structure have an obvious influence in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Shanxi and Liaoning.The influence of power input/output demand on most areas except Liaoning and Jilin is relatively balanced.The power generation level has a balanced influence in both the northeast and north China,and has a significant positive influence in Jiangxi and Yunnan.The emissions in various regions are significantly reduced by using treatment technology,with the greatest effects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The government should further reduce the proportion of thermal power industry,improve power generation efficiency,and encourage industrial progress in northeast China.By integrating GAINS-China model,this study estimates and analyzes air pollutant?SO₂ and NO_x?emission,mitigation potential and control cost of thermal power generation in China's 30 regions from 2015 to 2030,and the change trend of air pollutants emission in the future.The Business-as-Usual Scenario and Policy-Reinforced Scenario are set for comparison to quantify the effects of increasingly reinforced national emission control policies.Based on the results of the GAINS-China model,the Moran index is used to detect and reveal the spatial agglomeration features of air pollutant emission across regions.The results show that up to 2030,with reinforced control policies and implementation of more abatement technologies,obvious mitigation effects of SO₂ and NO_x emission can be recognized.The regions with huge mitigation potential and higher total control cost are mainly the eastern coastal regions with higher gross domestic product and more power generation?such as Zhejiang,Shandong,and Jiangsu?,as well as those with abundant energy reserve and tremendous power supplied to other regions?such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi?.The spatial autocorrelation analysis verifies that there is significant spatial disparity,as well as agglomeration effects of pollutant emission of thermal power generation,and the level of spatial clustering will appear to be intensified a little during 2015-2030 and the gap among the regions tends to become smaller.In conclusion,there are obvious regional disparities in the discharge of thermal power pollutants in China.Space spillovers,agglomeration effects and spatial heterogeneity should be considered when formulating emission control policies and regional goals.In order to design an available policy,policy makers should make locally suitable measures in terms of both technological feasibility and cost-effectiveness.Especially in economically backward areas,decision makers must make priority to achieve effective emission reduction strategies by considering the local realities.These results can help intensify energy conservation and emission reduction vigorously of thermal power generation,provide reference for government managers and environmental protection workers,as well as help policy makers formulate more scientific and effective control policies and regional goals.