The PPP Project Investment Risk Analysis Of Municipal Solid Waste Disposal

With the deepening of China's social and economic development,the process of urbanization has been steadily improved,and people are gathering in cities and metropolitan areas.The economic development model has also changed from the traditional one that pays too much attention to GDP growth to the new urbanization development stage of people-oriented and sustainable development.People are paying more and more attention to green,low-carbon and sustainable development.Therefore,the problem of urban garbage accumulation and pollution needs to be put on the agenda.The traditional municipal waste treatment is done by the government.The government not only pays for the construction of waste treatment facilities,but also takes charge of the whole process of waste treatment.The government's financial fund is limited,the management efficiency is difficult to improve substantially,the "garbage disposal" this public service ambition is not enough.The promotion of PPP model brings a turning point for this dilemma.Since 2017,developed by government policies and regulations to encourage social capital and social capital cooperation model to participate in a certain profitability of public project investment,construction,operation,can effectively reduce the financial pressure of local government,improve the efficiency of the operation of the project at the same time,under the supervision of the project in the market,and promote the development of the life garbage disposal project.However,the garbage treatment project has the characteristics of large investment capital demand at the initial stage,long project recovery period and many investment risk factors,etc.The addition of social capital also means that the number of project participants increases,and the project investment risks become more diversified and complex.Therefore,it is necessary for investors to make a comprehensive analysis and assessment of project investment risks in the early stage of such projects to ensure the smooth construction and complete operation of projects.Based on the study of relevant literature at home and abroad,combined with the actual situation of the PPP project of Ningbo World Bank loan for kitchen waste treatment plant,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the project's risk characteristics and existing risk variables,and studies the investment risk of this project.This study makes an in-depth exploration for the next phase of the PPP project of municipal waste treatment to be promoted in the country,which has great application value.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,PPP project cash flow has a strong path dependence.Monte Carlo simulation method can simulate the cash flow of PPP projects in the next 20 to 30 years through a large number of random path simulation,which provides a great reference value for the investment risk assessment of PPP projects in the early stage.Second,although the PPP project has a government background,its income is exposed to various risks due to its 20-30 years' cycle.Therefore,the key to the successful construction and application of the PPP project of waste treatment plant lies in the design of the garbage treatment fee pricing mechanism,so as to ensure the robustness of the cash flow during the operation of the project.Third,the PPP project of the world bank loan for the disposal of kitchen waste can provide reference for the next stage of PPP project construction.As a national demonstration project,the project's experience in contract design,introduction of foreign capital,and selection of pricing mechanism for garbage disposal fees can provide guidance for the promotion of subsequent projects.