Based On The Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis Of The CDM Project Risk Assessment

The main content of the clean development mechanism (CDM) is the manner in which developed countries by providing money and technology, the cooperation with developing countries to carry out the project level, get project of some or all of the emissions reductions, as part of its emissions reduction obligations. Since1992since the birth of the United Nations framework convention on climate change, the international community’s efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions has never stopped. The durban climate conference in2011to achieve further commitments of developed countries. The Kyoto protocol, the second phase of the commitments will take effect on January1,2013, international efforts continuously made new achievements in the difficulties, the international carbon market become more wide, specific CDM projects there is high uncertainty, these uncertainties make the revenue of CDM market in China is lower than the reasonable level. Therefore, we need to analysis of CDM projects are faced with the uncertainty factors, and explore the CDM project risk management approach.Based on the traditional risk theory and risk measuring method, based on the analysis of CDM project risk as the breakthrough point, comprehensively analyzed the macro and micro risk to the project, and the appropriate classification of risk. And then introduced the CDM market risk measure method, the monte carlo simulation method for quantitative description of risk. CDM projects at all stages of development are faced with different microscopic risk; In addition, the CDM project is also facing policy risk, weather risk, technology risk and the risk of macroscopic aspects such as the economic fluctuation. The influence factors of second pCER benefits are analyzed in this paper, and select the geometric Brownian motion model, using the monte carlo method, simulated pCER price movements. Calculated on a certain confidence level, the price fluctuation in the target time is namely VaR. Finally, combining with the above risk analysis, combining with CDM development and management of the foreign experience, put forward risk control measures, in order to reduce the project investors facing all kinds of risk can be controlled, increase the investment returns.