Investment Decision Research On Carbon Capture,Utilization And Storage Technology Of Coal-fired Power Plant Under Different Business-model

With the development of economy and society,the global environmental problem is becoming more and more serious.China's CO2 mainly comes from traditional industrial enterprises with coal as energy,such as power generation enterprises.Coal power is the main power supply channel in China,which cannot be completely replaced in a short time.Therefore,in order to slow down global warming,Carbon Capture,use and Storage(CCUS)as an important choice to reduce CO2 emissions has attracted wide attention.However,CCUS technology has not been as popular as expected by enterprises.The high cost,unclear policies and immature business model have seriously hindered the development of CCUS project.Based on this,this paper attempts to discuss and compare the investment decisions of power plants under three different business models in the future,in order to provide some references for CCUS project investment,business model selection and government CCUS subsidy policy of power plants in China.Paper first analyzes the state-owned coal characteristics,analyze the CCUS business model and designed the three different types of business model and analyzes the main factors that influence the investment CCUS technology coal-fired power plants,including carbon trading price,government subsidies and CCUS technology progress and so on,then considering the irreversibility of project investment and the big uncertainty choose real option method as the research method of power plant for the release of the risk of multi-stage investment delay and delay the real options method,finally because investment flexibility combined with the rise in the price of carbon trading,constant,the decline in three of the trigeminal tree model choice,The investment decision model of CCUS technology investment in state-owned coal-firedpower plants under different business models is constructed,and the specific investment decision rules are determined to provide reference for the investment decision of power plants under different business models and the decision of business models under different policies and market environments.Finally,according to the development status of coal-fired power generation industry,the supercritical coal-fired unit is selected as the research object to set parameters and calculate the basic data.Then,the investment value,critical condition and investment threshold of CCUS technology investment in state-owned coal-fired power plants under different business models were calculated respectively,and the joint venture model was found to be the business model with the lowest investment threshold.However,as different business models involve different links and subsidies,specific investment decisions need to be combined with the current policy subsidies: the joint venture model has a better performance under the higher level of electricity price subsidy,while the state-owned enterprise model can get rich profits under the higher level of storage subsidy.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of the carbon trading price,government subsidy and investment cost of the project was carried out,and Suggestions were put forward according to the analysis results,and the summary and prospect were made.