Research On CCUS Investment Decision Model And Strategy Of Coal-fired Power Plant Based On Real Option

Global warming caused by excessive emissions of greenhouse gases has attracted increasing attention from the international community.In order to achieve the sustainable development goals,it is undoubtedly imperative to vigorously promote energy conservation and emission reduction measures.Seeking scientific and advanced technical means to assist large coal-fired power plants to efficiently and reasonably control carbon emissions has become an urgent problem to be solved.The emergence of carbon capture,utilization and storage(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS)technology can ensure the economic and effective supply of energy,combine the storage and conversion of carbon dioxide,and achieve "near zero" emissions,with great emission reduction potential.In the practical application process of CCUS technology,the emergence of the real option method just makes up for the many uncertainties faced by the CCUS project due to its high investment cost,and has quantified various factors and indicators to increase the option value of the project,so that the accuracy and flexibility of the project decision can be further improved within a controllable range.Therefore,this paper introduces the physical option method into the CCS investment decision of the power station.First of all,focusing on coal-fired power plant CCUS project investment decision problem,to optimize the investment decision model,improve the project income as the research goal,considering CCUS project high investment risk,cost,irreversible investment process and investment timing selective characteristics,choose physical options method and complex network analysis as the basic theory,elaborated the advantages of the physical option method compared to the traditional investment decision-making method,and for CCUS project physical option type identification.In the process of investment may face all kinds of uncertainty factors and measurement,the introduction of atlas complex network theory construction graph structure adaptive model of related risk factors to mining,correlation analysis,identify the coal-fired power plant CCUS investment project main factors including carbon emissions trading price,carbon dioxide use price,government subsidies and technology progress rate.On this basis,the CCUS investment decision model of coal-fired power plant is constructed based on real options,and the index system of the model is constructed by screening suitable indicators.Then,through the deferral option selection and model hypothesis,the net present value of the coal-fired power plant investment is calculated.On this basis,the binary tree pricing model under the deferral real option condition is constructed,and the calculation formula of the total investment value of the project is obtained.Finally,combined with the current power generation situation of China’s thermal power industry,the industry standard power plant is selected for case analysis to verify the model,and the uncertainty factors affecting the investment value of the project are tested by correlation.Finally,the critical value of investment is determined and the optimal investment strategy for CCUS project of coal-fired power plant is formulated.In addition,relevant policy suggestions are given for the optimization and improvement of CCUS project construction schemes and investment strategies by the coal burning industry and enterprises themselves,so as to promote the considerable development of CCUS technology investment in the coal burning industry and provide strong support for the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutral emission reduction goals.