Investment Decision Study On CCS Technology For Coal-fired Power Plants

In recent years,environmental problems have become more and more serious around the world,and the frequency of natural disasters has increased significantly,making the world environmental protection problem very serious.From China’s perspective,with the rapid development of China in various aspects,the demand for power generation is also rising,and the coal consumption of coal-fired power plants remains high,which requires the support of new emission reduction technologies.However,the investment in CCS(Carbon Capture and Storage)technology requires high investment costs and is subject to various policies and uncertainties such as carbon and CO2 markets,so how to invest in CCS technology for coal-fired power plants under the influence of such uncertainties has become the focus of current research.This paper first analyzes the internal and external environment of the coal-fired power plant as the target enterprise,using the PEST analysis method to analyze the external environment of the enterprise in four aspects: political,economic,social,and technological,and based on the results of the analysis,the SWOT analysis method is applied and a SWOT analysis matrix model is established,focusing on the internal environment of the coal-fired power plant and the general direction of future development.Based on the results of the above internal and external environment analysis,this paper establishes a research model based on the net present value method and the real option method,according to the influence of carbon emission trading market,investment cost of CCS technology,carbon dioxide storage cost,carbon dioxide secondary income,and the proportion of government subsidies,etc.A binomial tree analysis is conducted and investment rules are set.In the process,the impact of government subsidies and technological advances on the net present value(NPV)and total net present value(TNPV)of the project were predicted and calculated.Finally,based on the results of the calculations,recommendations are made for the investment decision of CCS technology for coal-fired power plants in terms of government,coal-fired power plants,and the construction of carbon emission trading market,which will provide a theoretical basis and certain reference for coal-fired power plants in the subsequent investment decision of CCS technology.