Study On The Strategy Of Low Carbon Industrial Development In Yunnan Province Based On System Dynamics

Yunnan is located in the southwest border area,known as the kingdom of non-ferrous metals,and is a unique mineral resource treasure.In recent years,Yunnan has responded to the national call to actively promote carbon saving and emission reduction.In the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the development of low-carbon industrial economy,Yunnan Province proposed the establishment of the province’s total carbon emission control system and decomposition and implementation mechanism.By2020,carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 45% compared to2005 above.In this context,this article explores the research and development of low-carbon economy in accordance with the conditions of Yunnan Province,which has important practical and theoretical significance.First of all,this article analyzes the current situation of the industrial development in Yunnan Province.By calculating the carbon emissions and carbon dioxide intensity of the industrial industry in Yunnan and the overall sub-sectors,the status of industrial carbon emissions is analyzed.Using LMDI decomposition method to decompose the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions.The analysis results show that coal is still the main energy consumed by the industrial industry in Yunnan Province,and the use of natural gas and other clean energy needs to be improved.Among the main influencing factors of carbon emissions,structural effects,intensity effects,economic effects,and population scale effects contribute to-33%,-36.98%,95.23%,and 74.81% of the total effects.Secondly,combined with the current status of industrial low-carbon development and carbon emission influencing factors in Yunnan Province,the boundary of industrial low-carbon development system in Yunnan Province is determined,and the dynamic model of low-carbon development system in Yunnan Province is established.After passing the inspection of intuition and effectiveness,three scenarios of environmental protection subsidy adjustment strategy simulation,industrial structure adjustment strategy simulation,and energy structure adjustment strategy simulation were established.After analyzing the three strategies,please enterthe analysis.The overall industrial and major fossil energy consumption in Yunnan Province Situation,changes in carbon dioxide and carbon emissions,and to verify whether the industry’s “13th Five-Year Plan” of Yunnan Province has achieved its carbon-saving and emission-reduction targets.The results show that: under the current policy,the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by35.70% in 2020 compared with 2005;the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP under the adjustment of environmental protection subsidies will decrease by 45.60%compared with 2005,and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP under the adjustment of industrial structure will decrease by 47.82% compared with 2005.Under the adjustment of energy structure,carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 48.40% compared with 2005.Under the simulation adjustment of the three strategic scenarios,the overall industrial low-carbon development level of Yunnan Province is significantly better than before the regulation.Both can initially achieve the goal of reducing the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP of Yunnan Province by 2020 by more than 45% compared with 2005,and realize the industrial low-carbon development of Yunnan Province.Finally,the simulation under different scenarios and the current situation under the current policy are compared and analyzed.In that case,Yunnan Province can successfully achieve the carbon saving and emission reduction goals,so as to determine the best adjustment plan suitable for the development of low-carbon industry in Yunnan Province,and put forward reasonable suggestions for the future development direction of low-carbon industry in Yunnan Province.