The Study On The Cyclical Fluctuation Of International Oil Price And Its Impacts On Chinese Oil Enterprises

Oil(Petroleum)is of great significance to China's national economy,and due to oil's multiple attributes,the price of it has long been a concern.Affected by a variety of political and economic factors or unexpected incidents,the historical oil price has been fluctuating.China is heavily dependent on foreign oil and consumes more and more oil,besides,the reform of domestic refined oil products showed there's a tendency of internationalization in pricing mechanism,consequently,there's possibility of Chinese economy's vulnerability to the fluctuation of international oil price.And with the intensification of economic globalization,it seems the possibility would increase.So that it is necessary to study on the cycles and the impacts of oil price on Chinese oil enterprises.It will not only help to explore the characteristics of oil and offer information as we predict the price,but also help the government,industries,enterprises and investors to make decisions.Based on the analysis of a large number of theories and literature,this paper conducted an empirical analysis.In the theory part,this paper summarized the supporting theories underlying oil pricing mechanism,on the basis of oil's multiple attributes like natural resources,commodity and financial subject matter,then it connected oil price cycles with business cycles,and described two transmission paths,namely,“commodity chain” and “finance chain”.As for empirical analysis,there are two focal points.The first was the exploration of cyclicality of oil price,which used the methods of measuring business cycles.The results of Hodrick-Prescott Filter showed since 21 st century,international oil price had 4 characteristics as follows.(1)spans of cycles: shortened;(2)volatility: fluctuating more often;(3)trend: went upward in the past and went downward in the future;(4)asymmetry: oil price was booming in a comparatively moderate pace over a long time span and droppingcomparatively fast.Then the results of spectral analysis showed the cycles contributing most were 38,24,21,71 and 17 months,which matched with the results of Hodrick-Prescott Filter,and two of which fit in with Kitchin Cycle.The second focal point of empirical part was the exploration of oil price's impacts on Chinese oil enterprises.The results of a SVAR model showed international oil price fluctuation had a nearly unidirectional impact on Chinese oil & gas exploitation enterprises,fuel processing enterprises(including oil,coal and other fuel),and chemical raw materials& chemical products manufacturing enterprises.After excluding chemical raw materials & chemical products manufacturing enterprises,the impulse response test based on the new SVAR model revealed that the responses of those enterprises to the impulse from international oil price would approach zero within 12 months,which meant our domestic market had a strong ability of adjusting.Then a case study on Sinopec showed oil price fluctuation did have impacts on the profitability and development ability of Sinopec,namely,the profitability and development ability of Sinopec and International oil price change towards the same direction.And an oil enterprise which applied vertical integration had stronger ability to stand up to oil price fluctuation.Finally,this paper demonstrated enlightenment gained from analysis above,such as strengthening national energy diversification strategy,developing oil futures market and regulating industrial excessive monopoly profits and so on.