A Study On The Risk Management Of Crude Oil Pipeline In Country A Based On Scenario Planning

The crude pipelines in country A,part of an oilfield-pipeline-refinery integral project in support of economic development of the country,were constructed and commissioned by Petro-China in May of 2011.The pipelines,over 500 kilometers length in total,actually consist two independent pipelines,one of which is the domestic economic artery and the other is the critical channel for crude export to international market.Due to the complicated political,military,economic and social problems in country A,During their routine operation,the pipelines confront various risks and operation management problems,awaiting urgently for solutions.Based on the description of the operation status of the crude oil pipeline project in country A in recent years,this study analyzes the social security risks,natural environment risks,market risks and daily operation risks of the project from the typical cases.Through the risk analysis of these four aspects,applying scenario analysis method and metrics analysis method,this study designed possible risk scenarios,such as assets and equipment be stolen,face the terrorist attack,be hijacking of the Chinese personnel,malicious destruction,severe soil erosion caused by the continuous rain,high temperature risk of the environment,sharp drop in international oil prices,default of the government,default of the downstream enterprises,equipment function failure,pipeline pigging arrangements are unreasonable,as a total of 11 risk scenarios during operation of the pipeline.For each risk scenario designed,this study analyzed and discussed from the both sides of countermeasures and prevention strategies,and given the countermeasures and prevention measures for each scenario.