Research On Coupling Risk Assessment Of Dangerous Cargo Transportation Based On Bayesian Network

With the development of science and technology and social progress,the related industries of dangerous goods in China are developing rapidly.However,all kinds of dangerous chemical products due to its physical and chemical properties of unstable,often in the process of highway transportation with fire,explosion,leakage risk events,lead to personnel casualties,vehicle damage,ecological environment pollution and so on.Through the analysis of the existing road transport of dangerous goods the flaws of the risk management means and unscientific transportation risk assessment method,analysis method,based on Bayesian network for road transport of dangerous goods operation of coupling risk assessment,to improve the level of safety management of road transport of dangerous goods industry,reduce the road transport of dangerous goods accidents and loss rate has very important guidance value and research significance of reality.In this paper,a Bayesian network based coupling risk assessment method for dangerous goods transportation is proposed.Based on the data of previous accidents,risk sources and risk events were identified for road hazardous cargo transportation,and the characteristics of road hazardous cargo transportation risk were analyzed by using JHA operational hazard analysis method,and the minimum operational links of road hazardous cargo transportation were divided.The FTA fault tree analysis method is used to identify the risk indicators for each job content,and several typical coupling risks that may lead to serious and serious accidents are selected as risk indicators based on the accident data and expert experience.The grey relational degree method is used to analyze the risk degree between coupling risks.Based on the selected coupling risk indicators,a topology model in line with the Bayesian network principle is constructed.This model consists of 27 risk indicators in four layers,which are transportation enterprises,operation units,operation links and coupling risks from the top to the bottom,and the node probability value of inter-index systemlevel relations is determined by Netica software.The risk assessment model was used to evaluate the site safety of an enterprise in J city.The prediction results of forward reasoning show that the risk level of the enterprise belongs to level III,which leads to less coupling risk and higher risk management and control.Reverse diagnosis reasoning discovered this enterprise the most unsafe coupling risk chain for R-road transport unit "transport enterprises X3-road transport operation link Y5-brake bad/rain and snow weather Z17 coupling risk",in addition,using the intermediate links reasoning,to the enterprise each homework link among the least security risk chain of reasoning.