Study On The Negative Externality Cost And Prediction Of Air Pollutant Emission Of Qingdao Port Ships

Qingdao Port,one of the typical comprehensive ports,has witnessed rapid development of maritime business with increased number of shipping vessels in recent years.Even though Ship transportation is recognized as a green and environmentally friendly transportation mode,the atmospheric pollutants generated by ship emissions are much higher than other modes of transportation.And assessing the effect of ship emissions on humans and the environment damage by the means of economic implications has not been researched.Therefore,an in-depth research on ship emissions from Qingdao Port was conducted,which could not only improve the atmospheric environment,but also provide scientific suggestions for the local government or port managers.The trade data of Qingdao Port from 2005 to 2017 was adapted,through the trade law in the"top-down"method,to establish a list of ship emissions inventory of Qingdao Port,which mainly involves five air pollutants:NOx,SO₂,CO,PM₁₀ and VOCs;the“Value Transfer”method was used to obtain the negative externality cost factors of various pollutants,calculate the negative externality cost of ship emissions,and the necessity and urgency of controlling ship emissions at ports is intuitively demonstrated with monetary data;a grey forecasting model for the list of ship inventory of was established to forecast the ship emissions in Qingdao Port,and the prediction accuracy of GM?1,1?model is improved by Markov model,and the prediction value is revised;to forecast the ship emissions of Qingdao Port from 2020 to 2030,in order to better present the staged change trend of predicted emissions,take the predicted emissions in 2020,2025 and 2030 for further analysis.The results show that:?1?In the Qingdao Port Ship Inventory from 2005to 2017,NO_X,SO₂,CO,and PM₁₀ emissions of the four types of air pollution showed an overall upward trend,of which NOx emissions were the largest,accounting for about 70%of the total emissions,VOCs show a downward trend with the lowest emissions,accounting for less than 2%of total emissions;?2?the contribution of ship emissions to Qingdao's air pollutants is getting higher and higher,and the negative externality cost factor of PM₁₀ is the highest?378,452.83$/t in 2017?,the negative externality cost factor of CO is the lowest?3.02$/t in 2017?;?3?it is predicted that the ship emissions will continue to increase except VOCs,and the emissions of NO_X,SO₂,CO,and PM₁₀ will double by 2030,the total negative externality cost will reach$917 million by 2030.The above results yield important implications.On the one hand,the government should focus on controlling the ship emissions of NOx,SO₂ and PM₁₀,especially PM₁₀;on the other hand,ports need to develop shore power systems in the port area to reduce the use of auxiliary engines for ships in the port area.The control of Qingdao port ship emissions will be the key to continuously improve the air quality of Qingdao in the future.