Research On The Evaluation Of The Recovery And Reconstruction Effect Of Major Natural Disasters

Post.disaster recovery and reconstruction is an important means to support and help natural disaster areas to restore normal production and life order.The core objective of post.disaster reconstruction evaluation is to evaluate the effects of recovery and reconstruction and the gap between the goals of reconstruction planning and the expected demands of different subjects.Shift to natural disasters,collection of disaster information,disaster loss information and the restoration and reconstruction of overall planning,know the basis for planning and preparation of the content and the characteristics of the planning,selecting and post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction in the disaster areas evaluation index system of performance evaluation of primary and secondary,to interpretation and use of remote sensing monitoring indicators at various levels and on.the.spot investigation to finish to calculate each index;Based on the empirical analysis of the post.disaster recovery and reconstruction of "8·7 massive debris flow in zhouqu,gansu",quantitative structural analysis of the first.level index was conducted by using ISM(interpretation structure model),and the multi.level hierarchical structure was established to determine the relationship between the upper and lower levels of the index.AHP(analytic hierarchy process)was used to rank the influence of reconstruction effect evaluation indexes,and the weight set of evaluation indexes was obtained.Fuzzy statistical method was used to determine the membership matrix of the index system,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to quantitatively evaluate the recovery and reconstruction effect.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Building a people.oriented,in order to regional sustainable development is a long.term goal,to economic development,social harmony and emergency ability as the core of the disaster area reconstruction effect evaluation index system,including economic benefit,social benefit,humanistic value,the ecological environment sustainability and emergency capability construction in six aspects,such as an index and index system of 37 secondary,provides the evaluation basis for the post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction effect evaluation.(2)Construct the evaluation model of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction effect,construct the evaluation model of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction effect from qualitative and quantitative aspects.(1)Select the evaluation index of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction effect.(2)Qualitative research on the evaluation index by using the interpreted structure model(ISM).(3)The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is adopted to calculate the weight of the primary and secondary indicators,construct the quantitative calculation method of the effect evaluation of the overall plan for the recovery and reconstruction of the disaster area,and complete the evaluation of the plan implementation.(4)According to the formulated questionnaire for multi.subject participation in the economic,social and ecological recovery and reconstruction in the disaster area,a quantitative comprehensive evaluation method for the effect of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction in the disaster area with multi.subject participation was established by using fuzzy mathematics.(5)Analyze the results of the "one qualitative and two quantitative" evaluation model,and make a comprehensive evaluation of the effect of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction.The evaluation model provides a feasible method to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the effect of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction from both qualitative and quantitative aspects.(3)Based on post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction effect evaluation model for example,the "August 7 heavy zhouqu mudslide in gansu province" post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction effect evaluation,through the qualitative analysis,effect evaluation of post.disaster restoration and reconstruction in cultural construction as the starting point,to the ecological environment as a long.term goal,through the factory housing construction and infrastructure investment in the disaster areas of economic growth,the reconstruction effect is the direct expression is two aspects of social development and emergency ability.The analysis on the anastomosis of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction planning shows that the anastomosis of post.disaster recovery and reconstruction planning of zhouqu debris flow is 82.8%,and the evaluation effect is good.(4)The emergency ability from the society.economy.environment.more than four aspects to complete the main body involved in the restoration and reconstruction of effect evaluation and analysis to get the "zhouqu debris flow" post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction effect evaluation system of indicators,the evaluation result from "good" to the poor,including infrastructure reconstruction,economic recovery and reconstruction and emergency ability effect of restoration and reconstruction of the evaluation results as "excellent",introduces the rebuilding around post.earthquake recovery and reconstruction of housing construction and other infrastructure reconstruction and recovery industry and improve the emergency ability as the main target.The evaluation result of social development recovery and reconstruction and cultural value recovery and reconstruction is "medium",indicating that social development and cultural facilities recovery and reconstruction after the disaster need to continue to improve and increase the resource preference.The emphasis should be on strengthening the restoration and reconstruction of the ecological environment,restoring the soil and vegetation in the damaged areas,and ensuring that the restored soil has certain fertility and vegetation coverage.Restoring regional biodiversity and ecological communities and improving the self.sustaining and productive capacity of the ecosystem;Minimize and deal with ecological environment pollution and reduce ecological environment risk.Finally,based on the data analysis,this paper constructs the evaluation mechanism for the recovery and reconstruction of major natural disasters from two aspects: the evaluation index monitoring mechanism and the recovery and reconstruction effect evaluation mechanism.