| There is no doubt that toys export in China has developed steadily in recent years driven by the new normal of global economy.The impact of global trade frictions escalating did not prevent the toys export in our country from being pulled by emerging markets,thus maintaining a steady growth momentum of concussion.The statistics of commodity trade database released by the United Nations,toys made in China accounted for 73% of the total global toy consumption from2001 to 2018,realizing the great achievement of increasing export volume from $5.165 billion in2001 to $25.468 billion in 2018.In the past ten years,its growth rate far exceeded the average export growth rate of the national trade export and light industry,achieving nearly four times growth,which both promotes domestic economic development and creates many jobs.Nevertheless,the toy industry is also facing various problems in the scale expansion process.Some main targeted markets like America and Japan,propose increasingly stringent requirements for China's export by continuous introduction of regulations and standards,which both increased the export enterprises' cost and economic burden,as well as reduced the our export share to a certain extent.For instance,China's share of toy exports to its biggest targeted market-America has been declining in recent years,which may be caused by factors of trade friction and technical barriers to trade.Based on this,the research on TBT(Technical Barriers to Trade)has a positive effect on China's toy export.This thesis involves theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In theoretical analysis part,different aspects of TBT are introduced first,including its concept,form,quantitative index,mechanism and trade effect on toy exporting countries.After that,it analyzes current toy export situation in China and its related technical barriers to trade.The empirical analysis part takes notification number as the quantitative index of TBT.Firstly,the average marginal effect of TBT notifications on China's toy exports over a long period of time is calculated from the data of2001-2018 by using OLS regression.Next,the quantile regression method is adopted to analyze the marginal effect of TBT notification number on our toy export in a specific quantile.Finally,OLS regression is applied again to calculate the impact in short term.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)TBT is characterized by duality,which has a restraining effect on our toy export in the short term.The export volume will decrease by 0.151% with every 1% increase of TBT in the short term,while it will increase by 0.084% in the long term with promoting effect.(2)With the increasing of the quantile,the regression coefficient of the core explanatory variable TBT decreases gradually,which indicates that the number of TBT notifications has a great influence on the front end of China's toy export,and then decreases gradually,in other words,the biggest beneficiary of TBT is the low-trade volume countries,because its long-term impact on the low-trade volume countries is larger,which is smaller on the high-trade volume countries.(3)TBT has stronger significant inhibitory effect on the total amount of toys exported to developed countries than to underdeveloped ones in the short term,while it has more obvious promoting effect on that of developed countries than underdeveloped countries in the long term.According to the above analysis and empirical conclusions,the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed:(1)It is necessary for the government to strengthen the control of product quality,increase the importance publicity of product quality and the punishment of unqualified products;For toy export enterprises,they must change their production and management concepts and set up long-term development goals to improve product quality.(2)The government can provide help to enterprises,such as helping them integrate various resources,as well as strengthening capital and technology investment;As for those toy export enterprises,increasing scientific and technological innovation,and improving products technical content are their essential road.(3)Government shall improve the quality of standard setting,focusing on the publicity and interpretation of relevant standards;relevant enterprises shall produce high-quality products to satisfy the high standards and requirements of targeted market by improving own awareness of standardization.(4)Communication with emerging markets is another aspect that the government should strengthen,so as to promote cooperation between toy export enterprises and emerging markets;related enterprises should adopt diversified market strategies to expand own exports. |
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