Price Research In The Secondary Market Of Coal

As we all know,China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer,and coal accounts for the highest proportion of all its energy consumption and production,the most basic energy in our country.However,the coal-based energy structure and extensive energy development model lead to a series of problems,such as haze,energy waste and environmental pollution ect..Under this background,it is urgent to reform the supply-side structure.For this reason,the relevant regulatory agencies have also issued relevant policies to achieve energy saving and emission reduction effects,and promote the development of high and new technologies in the coal industry,such as controlling the total amount of coal consumption,reducing production capacity,and reducing energy production,and so on.The implementation of these policies directly leads to large fluctuations in coal prices in China.The development of its upstream and downstream enterprises has a greater impact.Therefore,under the background of energy transformation and combined with the national conditions of China's economic development,studying the fluctuation of coal price change point,exploring and forecasting the causes of change point is beneficial to the development of relevant upstream and downstream industries.It is also very beneficial for investors in the secondary market of our country to make investment decisions.Firstly,the fluctuation characteristics of coal price change point are studied and the economic background of coal price change point is analyzed.The posterior mean value and posterior probability of coal price change point are calculated by PPM model,and the threshold value of change point is 0.7,through DBSCAN.From January 2008 to December 2018,there are 11 changes in the monthly price data.Behind these changes are some big or small economic events,such as subprime crisis,European debt crisis,capacity reduction,supply-side reform and so on.Secondly,considering the coal trade in the secondary market,the main reasons,direct reasons and indirect reasons of the coal price change point are selected,such as the supply and demand of coal,substitute factors and financial market indexes.By means of path analysis,it is found that the indirect effect of money supply and credit scale on coal price is the greatest.By using time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model,the impulse response of coal supply to coal price in supply and demand is the largest.The effect of non-thermal power generation on coal price fluctuation is significant in the aspect of alternative factors.Then,combined with the fluctuation of coal price change point and the reason of change point fluctuation,the ARIMA prediction model and BP neural network model are selected to forecast and analyze the coal price without and without the change point,respectively.Through the comparative analysis of the relevant indexes of the prediction results,the paper makes a comparison and analysis on the coal price without and without the change point.The prediction accuracy of the BP neural network model considering the main reason of the change point and eliminating the change point is higher than that of the single prediction model considering only the change point or the main change point reason.Finally,according to the reason and forecast result of fluctuating point,combining the position of coal in upstream and downstream industry and financial market of our country,some feasible suggestions are put forward from the angle of coal economic development and investment and financing in secondary market.In terms of macro-economy,firstly,the structure of coal industry should be adjusted according to the support of national policies and funds;secondly,financial instruments should be used to alleviate the shortage of funds and reduce the cost of financing;thirdly,the supply and demand of electric coal should be adjusted reasonably.In the secondary market investment and financing,through the implementation of China's monetary policy to determine and select appropriate investment and financing schemes.