Forecasting And Analyzing Research For Russian Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Method

The present research deals with forecasting oil production in Russia: production peak and export – using multicyclic Hubbert model.The importance of petroleum to the world's economy is absolutely obvious.According to EIA data(2006)oil is the most used energy source worldwide,accounting for 36.4% of primary energy consumption and 94.5% of global energy used for transportation.Modern civilization,as it is known,heavily depends on crude oil and its byproducts.So at present mankind needs more and more crude oil amounts with every next year,because oil consumption worldwide increases annually.Therefore one of the prime objectives of the petroleum industry nowadays is to provide the modern world with continuous flow of hydrocarbon fluids,oil and gas,while making a profit.Petroleum liquids are exhaustible resources;thus,a good forecasting scheme of oil supply will be crucial to all parties involved in the petroleum business,such as oil companies,financial institutions,public policy planners and makers,and oil exporting and importing countries.Such a model will also help bring stability and security to the crude oil market.That is why this problem is becoming more and more vital nowadays.The aim of this work is to forecast crude oil production in Russia using multicyclic Hubbert model and develop practical suggestions for correction energy policy strategy in terms of “turn to the East” vector through real life industrial cases and taking into consideration theoretical background,so that the gap between theory and practice in this issue can be narrowed down.Accurate forecasting of future oil production in Russia is going to be crucial,because it is vital for formulating appropriate and correct way of energy policy vector,considering current practical conditions and constraints,give good results in reasonable time and good perspectives in long-term period for one of the main world oil producing countries.This research is an attempt to bridge the gap between theoretical development and industrial practices in Russian oil producing problem.The computational results based on actual production data and made using Hubbert approach have shown that the proposed suggestions are robust,efficient,advantageous for solving the practical problems and useful for developing correction of energy policy vector in terms of economic criteria.However,they do not take into consideration possible technical or technological improvements and possible economical influences which can happen in the future.