Forecasting Natural Gas Supply In Russia:Production Peak And Supply Trends

In recent years,despite the rapid growth of natural gas production in major countries of the world,the demand for natural gas has increased year by year.There is still a gap between supply and demand and a certain degree of supply and demand in the global natural gas market.Countries around the world have invested huge sums of money in the exploration and development of natural gas.Natural gas production is not only an important indicator for measuring national industrial standards for natural gas reserves,but also essential for safeguarding national energy security.In this context,how to use scientific methods to accurately peak natural gas production and optimize the exploitation and utilization of natural gas,so as to develop a rational energy strategy planning has become an important proposition of a country's energy policy practice.Russia is the second largest natural gas reserve country in the world after Iran and the world's highest natural gas producer.It plays an important role in the supply of the global natural gas market.Accurate prediction of the peak value of Russian natural gas production will not only help to adjust the strategic layout of Russian natural gas,but also have certain reference significance for the energy strategic layout of other maj or natural gas producing countries.This paper takes Russia as the research obj ect,based on the data of Russian natural gas production,consumption and export from 2000 to 2018,using literature research method,Gaussian prediction model and other methods to predict the peak value of natural gas production in Russia,combined with the current major natural gas consumption countries.Demand situation,discuss the future supply trend of Russian natural gas.In addition,this paper uses co-integration test and URR sensitivity test to verify the reliability and robustness of empirical research results.The peak research of natural gas production is of great significance for the formulation of Russia's energy strategy,the coordinated development of the natural gas industry chain,and the investment decision of oil companies.The results show that:(1)The peak value of Russian natural gas will be affected by many factors,among which the final recoverable reserves(URR)is the most important factor affecting the natural gas production.(2)Russian natural gas exploitation has the characteristics of multi-peak state,it is necessary to adopt four Gauss gyrations to accurately predict the peak value of Russian natural gas,and the recoverable reserves are URR = 55.3×1012m3,the peak value of Russian natural gas production is 3.8 × 1012m3.While the recoverable reserves are the peak value of Russian natural gas production is 4.2×1012m3.So the pre-measurement of the Russian peak in this paper is3.8 × 1012m3--4.2×1012m3.(3)When the value of the final recoverable reserve(URR)is larger,the peak value of natural gas production is also greater,and the peak of production peak time is also lower.(4)Russia's natural gas supply will maintain rapid growth from 2018 to 2058.Although the supply of natural gas will be further improved in volume,the rate of increase will be reduced;in general,the development of natural gas in Russia The outlook is more optimistic.Based on the analysis of the supply and demand situation of natural gas in Russia,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations in terms of energy consumption structure,environmental protection and natural gas international cooperation.