Environmental Effect And Driving Mechanism Of Carbon Emission From Transportation In Sichuan Province

The transportation industry has basic support,promotion and service function for the development of the national economy.As one of the primary sources or proliferation sectors of social carbon emission,its importance and underpinning of China's energy conservation and emission reduction and ecological civilization work cannot be ignored.After the national emission reduction target was established,the scope of research is defined to the provincial and industrial level taking the transportation industry in Sichuan Province as an example,it has significant theoretical and practical value for the realization of the steady growth and low emission mode for transportation and economic development there.Therefore,this paper discusses the environmental effect and driving mechanism of transportation carbon emission there.And then the principal purport of this paper is to provide scientific and operational countermeasures for the sustainable development of its transportation industry.This paper firstly sorts out the directions and shortcomings of low-carbon transportation research after reading the relevant literatures,and defines the connotation of low-carbon transportation and its connection with the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC).Then,the energy consumption data of the transportation industry in Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2016 are obtained according to the subregional energy balance tables in China's Energy Statistics Yearbooks,besides the oil distribution method is used to amend the existing statistics and estimate the total carbon emission there by top-down calculation method.On this basis,systematic research on the environmental effect,and driving mechanism of carbon emission there are carried out.Finally,based on empirical research results,paths that the province must rely on for the transformation to low-carbon transportation are proposed.The main research conclusions are listed as follows:(1)The EKC curve simulation result of transportation industry carbon emission in Sichuan Province shows that there are difficult to have ideal "inverted U-shaped" EKC environmental effect curves among conventional transportation carbon emission and socioeconomic output intensities.Compared with the majority empirical results of other industries,it has earlier implemented favorable descent inflection point in the transportation industry,and thus it's transportation industry may face greater risk of emission reduction in the future.(2)The causal chain decomposition of the cross-elasticity between transportation carbon emission and conversion turnover confirms that the dependence elasticity has the most significant impact on industry's carbon emission environmental effect;the energy saving elasticity is subordinate,the impact of emission reduction and development elasticity are relatively small.The composition of dependence elasticity indicates that the province's transportation demand and socioeconomic output are both powerful,and the latter is more significant than the former,therefore,it is scientific to select the explanatory variable in this EKC empirical study.(3)The transportation industry carbon emission path analysis result shows that economic intensity,transportation intensity,relative structure,energy consumption intensity are the primary factors affecting the transportation carbon emission intensity(per capita)there.Economic intensity is the dominant determiner of carbon emission intensity,and its direct pull on that is remarkable.The effects of transportation intensity and relative structure on carbon emission intensity are motivated strongly by economic strength,while the direct and indirect effects of energy intensity on carbon intensity are significant.The two factors that contribute the most to carbon emission intensity fluctuations are short-term alterations in economic intensity and energy consumption intensity,and long-term changes in economic intensity and transportation intensity.