G20 National Carbon Emission Path Analysis And Key Influencing Factors Research

The problem of global warming caused by carbon dioxide-based greenhouse gas emissions is currently the most serious environmental problem and is highly valued by countries around the world.In response to this problem,countries have formulated and implemented corresponding carbon emission reduction targets and measures,but the relevant calculations show that there is still a gap of 15-17 Gt from the target carbon emission reduction value,so it is effective to find out the key factors of carbon emission.Carbon emission reduction methods are receiving more and more attention from all countries.However,the magnitude and mechanism of the influencing factors are different in different carbon emission stages,and the carbon emission paths of different countries will go through different stages.It is necessary to conduct research on carbon emission paths,stages and influencing factors.Therefore,the research purpose of the thesis is to explore the similarity and phase characteristics of carbon emission pathways in various countries,and to clarify the factors affecting the carbon emissions of countries in stages,and provide reference for countries to control carbon emissions.The G20 is currently the most important international economic cooperation organization in the world and has significant significance for its research.Firstly,the paper studies the G20 carbon emission path clustering method based on DTW distance DBSCAN clustering method and summarizes its basic characteristics.The results show that the carbon emission path of G20 is mainly divided into two categories.The carbon emission path of the first type of countries is relatively simple,and the observation is mainly divided into the slow growth-fast growth process.The second type of national carbon emission path is highly volatile,and it is observed that it is mainly divided into growth-fluctuation-re-growth-declining process.The classification results show that the carbon emission paths of countries do have similarities,and the deepening of similarity helps to provide reference for other countries to control carbon emissions.Secondly,through the BP breakpoint test,the two types of carbon emission paths are divided into stages and their stage characteristics are summarized.The IPAT model is used to initially discuss the key influencing factors of carbon emissions in 1960.The results show that the first category of countries will experience slow growth,rapid growth,volatility growth,and stability.Among them,in the growth stage after 1960,the carbon emission reduction effect caused by the reduction of carbon emission intensity is offset by the energy consumption formed by the rapid development of GDP.Therefore,carbon emissions will rise at this stage,and the influence characteristics of other stages need further analysis.The second group of countries will experience growth,volatility growth,rapid growth,and decline.There are differences in the order of volatility growth and rapid growth in different countries.In the growth stage after 1960,the carbon emission reduction effect with reduced carbon emission intensity cannot offset the positive effects of economic development,and the impact characteristics of other stages need further analysis.Finally,the paper takes the theory of sustainable development as the guiding ideology,sorts out relevant literature to determine the influencing factors,and establishes a carbon emission model based on the system of “population-economic-technical-social development-energy” based on system dynamics,and analyzes after 1960.The sensitivity of carbon emissions to various factors determines the main influencing factors at different stages of carbon emissions.The results show that in the slow growth,growth and rapid growth stage of the first type of countries after 1960,carbon emissions are mainly caused by urbanization and population growth.The population structure affects carbon emissions,carbon transfer phenomena and industrial structure through economic construction.Energy optimization and technology carbon emission reduction effects emerged at the end of the period.In the stage of volatility growth,carbon emissions are still mainly affected by urbanization construction and population growth,and the population structure is significantly affected.The energy optimization of industrial structure is obvious.In the stabilization phase,the population impact is more obvious than the urbanization due to the increase in residents' consumption and the Northam curve effect;the population structure is weakened due to the economic maturity and the consumption level of the residents,and the negative carbon emission effect of the aging is weakened;Technology carbon emission reduction effectively curbed the growth trend of carbon emissions.In the fast-growing stage of the second-class countries after 1960,carbon emissions were mainly affected by population growth,urbanization,and population structure.In the stage of volatility growth,in addition to the impact of population and urbanization,the carbon transfer phenomenon is strengthened and the negative effect of population aging is weakened.In the declining stage,the population's impact on carbon emissions is more obvious than urbanization;technology carbon emission reduction and carbon transfer phenomenon effectively inhibit carbon emissions;industrial structure is relatively stable and low dependence on fossil energy,energy optimization is limited;population aging The negative effects on carbon emissions are no longer significant.