| Implementing quantitative environmental management under the market economy system is an important mode of environmental governance in China.The staggering peak-off production policy in highly polluting industries is generally considered to be an effective measure to alleviate air pollution,but there is currently no relevant empirical research.This paper focuses on the cement industry,which is the earliest industry to implement the stop-and-limit policy.The aim is to use economics means to explore the implied laws between the artificial changes in the output of cement products and the changes in air quality,and to scientifically and objectively evaluate the effects of the staggering peak-off production policies in different regions and different time periods.So as to provide a reliable basis for the government to continue to promote or adjust the policy in the future,and then guide production behavior of cement industry enterprises,reduce the atmospheric environmental cost from the production side,and achieve sustainable development of production as well as atmospheric protection.Firstly,this paper describes the changes of cement output and haze pollution,air quality index of northern cities,cement-related products and cement products.Based on this,time series model and spatial econometric model are constructed.On the basis of considering other major socio-economic factors,the statistical correlation between cement output and haze pollution is emphatically analyzed.Secondly,a quasi-natural experiment is constructed based on the panel data set of 114 cities in the north and south of China.The effect of stopping and limiting production policy on air pollution during heating season is evaluated by using multi-stage double difference model.The effects of three batches of northern cities are compared and analyzed horizontally.A series of robustness tests are carried out.Thirdly,the study focuses on the“2+26”city of air pollution transmission channel,and uses the breakpoint regression method to carry out regression analysis on the local samples of three times,and examines the graduality of the policy.Finally,combined with the production direction of cement,the action path of stopping and limiting production to improve air pollution is excavated,and the promotion mechanism is put forward accordingly.Accordingly,the main conclusions are as follows:?1?There is a very significant positive correlation between cement output and haze pollution.?2?Compared with the southern China,the staggering peak-off production policy has a significant effect on air pollution control in northern China,which can effectively reduce the air pollution levels in Chinese cities and thus improve the net social benefits.?3?The effect of this policy is mainly reflected in the reduction of PM10,NO2,PM2.5 and CO.?4?The effects of staggering peak-off production policy on the improvement of air pollution in the three batches of cities are all obvious,and at the same time it also shows the difference,which has the greatest effect on the second batch of cities,followed by the first batch of cities,and the third group of cities had the least effect.?5?Decline in cement-related output is an important cause of the improvement of air quality.The decline in the output of concrete and cement products has also played a role in improving air quality.?6?For cities of air pollution transmission channels,the first policy has achieved remarkable results,but it has not played a sustained and stable role.It is proposed to explore objective and effective management methods,leverage local conditions and dynamically promote this policy,give full play to the market's regulatory mechanism and make new breakthroughs in mechanism innovation. |
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